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10.07.2023 12:01 PM
Contrasting employment figures in the US

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Contrasting employment figures from ADP and the US Department of Labor created uncertainty in forecasts for dollar, as it is still unclear how the Federal Reserve will react to the situation.

The ADP said employment data for the private sector in June more than doubled the estimate, showing 497,000 instead of just 220,000. Meanwhile, the US Department of Labor said non-farm employment increased by 209,000, lower than the expected 240,000.

Nevertheless, this weaker employment data will not be enough to change the Fed's decision to proceed with the planned rate increase in July, as rapid wage growth increases inflationary pressure.

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But dollar continues to be sensitive to Treasury yields, which declined amid Friday's news. Reportedly, the yield on 10-year bonds dropped to 3.707%, compared to the previous high of 4.017%.

The CME FedWatch tool said they could see a 91.8% probability that the Fed will raise rates by 0.25% in July.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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