Market Roundup
- US Non-Farm Payrolls Feb 295k, f/c 240k, 239k-prev
- US Private Payrolls Feb 288k, f/c 229k, 237k-prev
- US Unemployment Rate Feb 5.5%, f/c 5.6%, 5.7%-prev
- US Average Earnings MM Feb 0.1%, f/c 0.2%, 0.5%-prev
- Fed's Lacker repeats call to hike rates in June, ECI is firming & on upward trend, jobs market has moved at a greater pace than expected (SiriusXM)
- Fed's Fisher U.S. close to full employment but not there yet, USD strength likely not a setback from macroeconomic perspective, wage pressures still tame but expected to rise
- Goldman's Hatzius expects September Fed rate hike, expects Fed to drop 'patient' from March policy statement
- BlackRock's Rieder U.S. Fed seen hiking rates in June or Sept
- Greek reforms list cites tackling evasion, fiscal savings-source
- Greece's Tsipras says ECB has "rope round our neck", asks Greek ministers for fewer words/ more action
- Fitch affirms European Union, Euro Atomic Energy community at 'AAA'; outlook stable
- Banxico's Sanchez little impact from weak peso on Mexican prices so far, has seen pickup in private consumption recently
- Brazil's Barbosa BRL is not out of control, does not have a target for BRL, govt is not considering add'l fiscal measures, econ growth likely to recover in H2 '15
- Colombia CB board member says inflation now top priority
- US Manufacturing Payrolls Feb 8k, f/c 12k, 21k-prev
- US Government Payrolls Feb 7k, 2k-prev
- US Average Workweek Hrs Feb 34.6h, f/c 34.6h, 34.6h-prev
- US Labor Force Partic Feb 62.8%, 62.9%-prev
- US U6 Underemployment Feb 11%, 11.3%-prev
- US International Trade MM $ Jan -41.8b, f/c -41.7b, -45.6b-prev
- US ECRI Weekly Index w/e 130.6, 130.6-prev
- US ECRI Weekly Annualized w/e -4.6%, -4.5%-prev
- US Consumer Credit Jan 11.56b, f/c 14.75b, 17.87b-prev
- CA Building Permits MM Jan -12.9%, f/c -4.3%, 6.1%-prev
- CA Trade Balance C$ Jan -2.45b, f/c -1.00b, -1.22b-prev
- CA Exports C$ Jan 42.61b, 43.84b-prev
- CA Imports C$ Jan 45.06b, 45.06b-prev
- CA Labor Productivity Rate Q4 -0.1%, f/c 0%, 0.2%-prev
- MX Cons Confidence SA Feb 92.7, 91.8-prev
- MX Cons Confidence Feb 90.3, f/c 90.8, 91.1-prev
- BR IGP-DI Inflation Index Feb 0.53%, f/c 0.4%, 0.67%-prev
- BR IPCA Inflation Index MM Feb 1.22%, f/c 1.08%, 1.24%-prev
- BR IPCA Inflation Index YY Feb 7.7%, f/c 7.54%, 7.14%-prev
- Stock funds worldwide attract $7.1 bln in latest week, LT US Treasury funds saw over 6% of AUM pulled out (EPFR)
- Reuters Poll 15/16 primary dealers see at least 2 US rate hikes in 2015
Economic Data Ahead
- China Exports YY Feb (consensus 14.2% ,previous -3.3%)
- China Imports YY Feb (consensus -10%, previous -19.9%)
- China Trade Balance Feb (consensus 10.80b, previous 60.03b)
- (1645 ET/ 2145 GMT) NewZealand Manufacturing Sales Q4 (previous 0.4%)
- (1850 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Bank Lending YY Feb (previous 2.5%)
- (1850 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Current Acctt NSA JPY Jan (consensus 288.2b, previous 187.2b)
- (1850 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan GDP Rev QQ Ann Q4 (consensus 2.2%, previous 2.2%)
- (1850 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan GDP Revised QQ Q4 (consensus 0.6%, previous 0.6%)
- (1850 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan GDP Cap Ex Rev QQ Q4 (consensus 0.3%, previous 0.1%)
- (1850 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan GDP QQ Pvt Consmp Re Q4 (previous 0.3%)
- (1850 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan GDP QQ Ext Demand Q4 (previous 0.2%)
Key Events Ahead
FX Recap
USD/JPY: Dollar rally triggered by strong US employment data saw USD/JPY rise to 3-month high of 121.27. However, the pair lost momentum and pulled back below the 121.00 level over the last hours. The pair is on track to post third weekly gain in a row. The pair is currently trading the 120.70 area, up 0.49% on the day.
GBP/USD: GBP/USD plunged after US NFP report and bottomed at 1.5044, the lowest price since February 2. Cable lost almost 200 pips on Friday and accumulated a weekly decline of 350 pips, the worst performance since 2010. Despite sharp declines against the USD, the pound managed to finish with gains against the euro and swiss franc. EUR/GBP posted the lowest weekly close since December 2007 while GBP/CHF ended above 1.4800, posting the seventh weekly gain in a row.
USD/CAD: USDCAD support in the 1.24 area has been steady this week. The pair quickly climbed over a big-figure after stellar US jobs data combined with poor Canadian figures from the Building Permits and a wider trade deficit gave spot extra wings. The greenback seems to be taking a breather now, with USD/CAD consolidating above 1.2600 the figure. Currently the pair is trading at 1.2612, up around 0.86 pct. Supports seen at 1.2577 followed by 1.2565 and finally 1.2549. Resistances are at 1.2625 and then 1.2662.
EUR/USD: EUR/USD hurt by NFP, rate hike expectations, stabilizing near 1.0850. EUR/USD broke down the key 1.1000 handle following the solid print from the US Payrolls, but found decent support around the mid 1.0800s today. The pair has been meandering in the 1.0840/50 band so far. The pair is closing the third consecutive week in red, down from 1.1450 in mid-February. The next support lies at 1.0809 ahead of 1.0800 (psychological level) and then 1.0762. On the flip side, a breakout of 1.1218 (high Mar.3) would expose 1.1245 and then 1.1271.
USD/CHF: USD/CHF printed fresh 1-month high at 0.9857 amid a stronger US dollar. The pair is consolidating important weekly gains and headed toward the seventh daily gain in a row. Resistance levels could be located at 0.9855/60 (daily high), 0.9890, 0.9915 (Dec 30 high) and 0.9955. On the opposite direction support might lie at 0.9800, 0.9750 (March 5 high) and 0.9695.
