4-hour timeframe

Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 66p - 62p - 75p - 104p - 43p.

The average amplitude for the last 5 days: 70p (84p).

On Monday, July 30, the EUR / USD currency pair was trading higher despite the fact that there was no important macroeconomic statistics on the first trading day of the week. There were no performances of Trump, there was no Draghi's appearance. Nevertheless, the pair showed very high volatility and confident movement up. Thus, the conclusion suggests that at the moment, a pair of so-called "swings" have been formed. This phenomenon is characterized by multidirectional movements, which change usually once every two days. Thus, before the announcement of the results of the Fed meeting, which will be held on Wednesday, August 1, "swings" may persist. Further, everything will depend on whether the Fed will raise the rate once again and what comments will be given on monetary policy. Experts agree that at the meeting on August 1, the rate will not be raised. Hence, all attention will be to the comments of representatives of the Fed, in particular, Jerome Powell. The topic most interesting for everyone is, of course, the trade war between China and the United States. Thus, Powell can touch upon this topic, and his words will determine the further dynamics of the currency pair's movement. Earlier, Powell had already voiced his concerns about the new trading conditions introduced by Donald Trump. However, he also noted that trade policy is not his jurisdiction, so he can do nothing. In turn, Trump accused the Fed of too fast raising the key rate, which adversely affects the dollar and complicates the process of servicing the US public debt. Thus, even a certain confrontation has emerged between the Fed and the US president. Anyway, but the "hawkish" rhetoric Federal Reserve can send a couple down, "pigeon" - up.

Trading recommendations:

On the EUR / USD pair, an upward movement began. Thus, today and in the first half of Tuesday, we recommend trading on the rise with the targets of 1.1718, 1.1731 and 1.1745. The level of 1.1745 looks now for the pair as insurmountable, so a downward movement may begin from it.

It is recommended to open the sell orders after securing the pair below the critical line with the targets of 1.1646 and 1.1602. In this case, the initiative on the instrument will go into the hands of the bears for several days.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.