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Long-term review

Analysts at investment bank, Goldman Sachs, still predict a decline in the dollar but it may begin earlier than expected.

Exchange Rates 11.12.2018 analysis

According to experts, the probability of interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) in March 2019 is less than 50%.

"The growth of expectations that the regulator in the foreseeable future will adhere to a more" soft "position, may provoke a weakening of the dollar. Recent statements by the Fed have only strengthened our confidence in this, "said Goldman Sachs experts.

"In the near future, the dynamics of the US currency will be determined by such factors as the Fed's comments, the course of trade negotiations between the United States and the Middle Kingdom, as well as economic forecasts for the eurozone," they added.

The most likely scenario for the bank considers the dollar to depreciate after the December Fed meeting, following of which the Central Bank may revise its forecast for the number of rate hikes next year from three to two.

Meanwhile, by the end of this year, the dollar may not become cheaper because of the lack of time for a trend reversal and the presence of strong seasonal factors supporting the "American".

Performed by Viktor Isakov,
Analytical expert
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