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4-hour timeframe

Exchange Rates 12.12.2018 analysis

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 101p - 50p - 91p - 63p - 92p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 79p (73p).

The EUR/USD currency pair resumed its downward movement on Tuesday, December 11. The previous day, we believed that a slight upward trend may well resume, however, as practice shows, the bulls still have little strength, as well as the desire to buy the European currency against the background of problems with the Italian budget, French unrest and Theresa May's refusal to vote in the British Parliament, which was originally planned for today. From our point of view, the euro fell into a situation in which everything will depend on the negative in the eurozone and the United States. In Europe, as we see, there are enough negative moments. In the United States – while all is well, but in the near future the Federal Reserve may begin to complete the course of tightening monetary policy, which can be a good reason if not for the sale of the dollar, then for ending long-term purchases - for sure. The second factor that can support the euro is the strong overbought dollar. This factor, of course, does not mean that purchases of the euro will begin tomorrow, but will put pressure on the dollar's position in the medium term. In the course of the day, no important macroeconomic report was published in the eurozone and the United States. Thus, the basis for a new fall of the euro can only be a general disbelief in the currency of the block present in the market. Even if you look at the older timeframe, you can see that this year the euro currency has enough strength only for corrections, in most cases, purely technical. Only one question remains: when will the hegemony of the US dollar end?

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD resumed its downward movement. Thus, short positions are currently relevant for the support level of 1.1264. The price rebound from the level of 1.1328 may provoke a spiral of upward movement.

Buy orders will again be available for consideration not earlier than the bulls overcome the critical Kijun-sen line with the targets of resistance levels 1.1415 and 1.1440. However, the euro will need a fundamental basis for renewed growth.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen-red line.

Kijun-sen – blue line.

Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.

Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.

Chikou span – green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Performed by Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert
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