On Wednesday, traders will focus on the Committee members' projections on where the Federal funds rate will be. In December last year, financial officials predicted two rounds of monetary tightening; in March – none. Now the forward market estimates the probability of a rate reduction in 2019 at 89%. If the US regulator does not change its forecast, the yield on Treasuries will soar, stock indexes will collapse, and the dollar will strengthen its position. The head of the Fed will need to apply inhuman efforts to get everything back in place.
Market participants do not expect the regulator to start easing the policy tomorrow, but sincerely believe that Powell will provide them with signals. One of the conditions under which the rate can be reduced is the further expansion of the trade conflict between the United States and China. The next passions can be expected if the parties fail to meet and agree on a summit in Osaka, Japan at the end of June.
Trading peripetias are a powerful "bearish" driver for global stock markets. At the same time, rumors that the US central bank intends to react to them by lowering the rate are supported by the bulls on the S&P 500.
There is a whole gulf between the two largest economies in the world. Washington threatens with duties on all Chinese imports, and Beijing responds with a decline in US government notes to a 2-year low of $1.11 trillion. The value of the index decreases for eight months, which gives rise to rumors about China's plans to raise the yield of Treasury bonds and complicate life for the United States in the service sector. However, this can turn into a serious pain for China itself, moreover, it was revealed that China bought US debt through someone else's hands. Belgium came to the rescue of the Chinese.
Perhaps Donald Trump, who regularly criticized the Fed, wants Jerome Powell to help him in the event of a failure at the G20 summit. Will the Fed chairman do that? Powell constantly emphasized the non-political nature of the regulator and does not pay attention to the critical arrows of the White House owner.
As for the other world central banks, they will certainly begin to adjust their monetary policy depending on the actions of their US colleagues. So, on Monday, a member of the Governing Council, Benoit Coeure, and the head of the Bank of Spain, Pablo Hernandez de Cos, joined the choir of ECB representatives who openly talk about monetary policy easing if necessary. Today this so-called choir was headed by Mario Draghi himself. He managed to arrange a surprise, because no one expected such a turn of events before the outcome of the Fed meeting.
The head of the ECB at the annual symposium in Portugal openly announced a reduction in the already unprecedented low interest rates if inflation does not reach the target. The euro slumped in minutes, then reduced losses. Former ECB chief economist Peter Praet noted that the picture of wages and inflation in the euro area is improving. The fact that the regulator is considering the possibility of lowering the rates is seen as an alarming signal for experts.
It was a rehearsal run of EUR/USD. On Wednesday, if the Fed management adjusts its forecasts taking into account the views of the derivatives market, and Powell hints at a softening of the policy, the main pair could rise. The reluctance of FOMC members to change forecasts, on the contrary, will give rise to a "bearish" attack.
