4-hour timeframe

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 36p - 86p - 43p - 62p - 67p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 59p (58p).

For most of the day, the euro has strengthened against the dollar, influenced by the very same FOMC meeting that was announced last night, and the same speech by Jerome Powell, who made the rate cut in 2019. As we see, all the markets took a very negative view of information about a possible easing of the monetary policy of the United States, although there were no specific signals that this would happen in the coming months. Indeed, there is talk that the Fed can go down, but no more than a month. Recall that rumors of a recession in the US hover over the foreign exchange market for a year or two. Talk of a gigantic state debt of the United States has been taking place in recent decades. Nevertheless, in recent years, the US dollar continued to rise against all currencies, the US economy showed steady growth, and rates were raised from the minimum to 2.5%, which is not so little. Now traders only had time to notice a kind of haze and immediately began to react as if the US economy was burning with might and main and there were no positive moments. Recall that it is the EU economy that now looks hopeless. It is the ECB that can get its key rate to a negative value. The European Union is the one that is losing Britain and it also cannot solve Italy's budget problems. It is precisely in the EU economy that a serious blow will be dealt if Trump nevertheless decides to introduce duties on certain products. In general, we believe that the euro has grown, and this was reasonable, but it did not have any long-term prospects. If the dollar stops growing, it is unlikely that this will be replaced by a full-fledged upward trend in the euro/dollar pair.

Trading recommendations:

EUR/USD may begin to adjust the signal to a correction – a rebound from the level of 1,1302. Thus, long positions should be considered, after overcoming the level of 1,1302 with a target of 1.1353.

It will be possible to sell the euro/dollar pair if traders manage to gain a foothold below the critical line, with the first target of 1.1161. In this case, the initiative on the EUR/USD will be back in the hands of the bears.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.