For the last trading day, the currency pair pound / dollar showed a low volatility of 63 points. As a result of which the quote, to put it strictly, stood in one place. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see accumulation in the region of value 1.2430 - a fulcrum, which has long kept quotes and was a key coordinate on an annualized basis. As discussed in the previous review, the majority of traders went into short positions as early as July 19-22 at the time of breaking the periodic level of 1.2500, and now, in principle, the position is still in business. Belated traders and traders with topping up considered entry after a clear price fixing lower than 1.2430, which, in principle, was, but as a fact, was not supported by an inertial move and imposed some risk on trading operations. Considering the trading chart in general terms (daily timeframe), we see that the "Impulse" phase in the global downward trend still has a right to exist, although the previous local minimum (1.2381) has not yet fallen, and traders focus their attention on it for a clear understanding of tact.
The information and news background of the past day had a key event in the form of the election results in Britain, where Former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson won without any surprises. Naturally, the news was expected from the very beginning. Many media and sources called Boris in advance, and the results of the tours spoke for themselves. The British want a miracle, they want action in protracted economic issues, but what they got is a speaker, and then we will see.
So why did the pound stay in the same place? The first is, of course, that the final election was obvious to everyone. The second is that those loud statements that Boris's affairs during the election race induce some fear, and are waiting for specifics after they take the office of prime minister. If the harsh rhetoric of the current chapter towards the UK & EU divorce process continues and further statements are made in the style of "You must make concessions to us, otherwise the tough exit on November 1", then the British currency will obviously continue to storm the new lows and we will firmly descend. Now, we just have to wait and get ready, although speculators are ready to increase volatility.
We return to the news background of the past day, and there we had statistics regarding data on sales in the secondary housing market of the United States, where we forecast growth from 5.34M to 5.35M, but received a review of previous data and a decrease: Previous: 5.36M - -> Fact. 5.27M. News in the larger plan remained in the background due to the array of information background.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have statistics on new home sales in the United States, where growth is expected from 626K to 660K. Also waiting for preliminary data on PMI in the States, where growth is expected. Of course, do not forget about the information background, which can play the stimulus of jumps.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading schedule, we see that the ambiguity that hung yesterday, remains in the market. Fluctuation within the level of 1.2430, with the drawing of large shadows, adds to us uncertainty and some kind of readiness to jump. It is likely to assume that this suspension is temporary in nature, and jumps are waiting for us in the near future. Traders, in turn, are still leaning towards a downward move, as problems remain in the path of the British currency. If the judgment still turns out to be true, then the movement to the local minimum level of 1.2381 will be fast, followed by its breakdown.
Based on the available information, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's specify them:
- Positions to buy is considered if the information background unfolds and Boris Johnson says at least something solid in Brexit's plan.
- Positions for sale are already available, but if you did not have time to enter the value of 1.2500, then we consider the coordinates 1.2430 - 1.2415. The primary move to 1.2381.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators in the short, intraday and medium term have a downward interest, which, in principle, is not surprising due to such a massive background. It is worth considering such a moment that the indicators on small time frames can change due to their temporary bumpiness.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.
(July 24 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 24 points. It is likely to assume that volatility can increase many times due to the accumulation that we see on the chart.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.2500; 1.2620; 1.2770 **; 1.2880 (1.2865-1.2880) *; 1.2920 *; 1.3000 **; 1.3180 *; 1,3300
Support areas: 1.2430; 1.2350 **; 1.2100 **; 1.2000.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
*** The article is based on the principle of conducting a transaction, with daily adjustment
