31.07.2019 08:27 AM
Burning forecast for EUR/USD on 07/31/2019 and trading recommendation

So, the date of the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee has come, and although everyone seems ready to lower the refinancing rate from 2.50% to 2.25%, there is quite a lot of interesting things that await us. Indeed, the market seems to have been morally ready to mitigate the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System for a long time, but looking at the dollar, there were no special preparatory measures. It has been growing almost non-stop for almost a month. Although the idea was a complete opposite. This is largely due to the fact that, apart from a couple of representatives of the Federal Reserve System, no one else directly spoke about lowering the refinancing rate. So the intrigue remains. The truth is not in terms of whether or not the financing rate will be reduced today. It is clear that as soon as it becomes known that the refinancing rate was lowered, the dollar will begin to lose its position. The question is what exactly Jerome Powell will say today. If during his press conference he even hints at another reduction in the refinancing rate by the end of the current year, the dollar will lose its position with doubled strength. But if we do not hear this, then the weakening of the dollar will obviously be limited. And not long. There is also a rather amusing option, concluding that the Federal Reserve System will leave the refinancing rate unchanged. Of course, this is extremely unlikely, but if this happens, we will see a panic, and even hysterical, strengthening of the dollar. But again, not for long.

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The EUR/USD pair found support in the control point in the form of a range level of 1.1100, slowed down the downward movement and has in fact formed a pullback, with a subsequent accumulation. Analyzing the trading graph and the sequence of measures, we see that the wait-and-see position in the action plan of traders is clearly visible in the run-up to the Fed meeting. The accumulation, which already focuses as the fourth trading day, gives us an estimated scope of 1.1110/1.1160, with respect to which the fluctuation is made.

It is likely to assume that at first an awkward stagnation awaits us, after which a surge will occur against the background of the information flow. Trading recommendations in this case are divided into two options: First, we are holding a wait-and-see position outside the market and after the splash of the information background we analyze and enter the market; The second option is considered in terms of the Fed lowering the key rate, giving a consistent upward movement: 1.1180 --- 1.1230.

It is necessary to take into account such a moment that if predictions about a lowering of the rate are not justified, then the graph will sparkle with new colors, in the form of a hysterical decline.

From the point of view of the complex indicator analysis, we see that a stagnation within the upper accumulation limit led to the fact that the indicators on the minute and intraday intervals took the upward position. At the same time, in deeper time areas, like the day period, they maintain a downward interest against the background of an earlier descent.

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Dean Leo,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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