Latest COT report (Commitments of Traders). Weekly outlook for GBP/USD

The pound still does not inspire confidence and is deprived of the attention of major players. According to the COT report (Commitments of Traders dated 07.28.20.), open interest declined (-1425) and amounted to 178912. The major players maintain contradictions and continue to reduce total positions (-2358), which has an advantage on the side of the long 154479 - short 151483). The reduction is provided by the fact that the Non-Commercial group, which usually supports the current movement, continues to sharply build up short positions, reducing the bullish potential, while Commercial group maintains the long-term priority of long positions and actively increases them (long +4496 - short -3475).

The main conclusion

Looking at the data of the report and the effectiveness of the movement on the chart, we can conclude that the players to rise, as assumed in my analysis of the last COT report, were able to skillfully take advantage of the situation and the prevailing advantage, continuing the upward movement. Nevertheless, contradictions and a reduction in the share of bulls in the final position can slow down the current trend and provoke the development of a corrective decline.

Technical picture

The weekly and monthly candlesticks closed on Friday showed performance and bullish character. The daily time frame denied them solidarity. The daily candle has bearish advantages, and the significant distance to the daily short-term trend (1.2906) increases the chances of a full-fledged downward trend in the near term. During the weeks, the pair entered a bullish zone relative to the Ichimoku cloud, so the cloud (1.2966 - 1.2736) now acts as an important support for this area.

In the lower halves, the pound is currently in the correction zone. The pair is separated from the recovery of the upward trend by the maximum extremum of the last week and month (1.3169). The bulls, in turn, have lost the support of the central Pivot level (1.3107). The next downward reference point, which determines the distribution of the balance of power on H1, is located at 1.2990 (weekly long-term trend). In case of reliable consolidation below, the interests of the downside players will be aimed at implementing a full-fledged daily correction to the daily Tenkan (1.2906).

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (Classic), Moving Average (120)