The euro-dollar pair is still trading in a flat, within the price range of 1.1720 - 1.1860. The lower border of the range corresponds to the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator on D1, which coincides with the Kijun-sen line of the Ichimoku indicator, and the upper border corresponds to the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the same timeframe. Neither buyers nor sellers are hesitant to leave the given price range. If on Tuesday, traders tested the upper border of the corridor, on Wednesday, bearish sentiments prevailed for the pair. But if we abstract from intraday fluctuations, then we can come to the obvious conclusion that the pair is still trading in a flat, in anticipation of the key event of the current week, and most likely the whole of August.
Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is an annual symposium that takes place in the small town of Jackson Hole, in Wyoming, USA. For newcomers to the Forex market, it is worth making a small digression here to talk about the importance of this event. This forum is called the "barometer" of the sentiments of the central banks of the leading countries of the world. It attracts finance ministers of the world's leading countries, as well as heads of regulators and the most influential businessmen. The symposium discusses the most pressing and global problems of the financial world. For example, in 2015, its main topic was the collapse of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and in 2016 they talked about the consequences of Brexit since the symposium took place two months after the historic referendum. In 2018, participants in the financial world discussed widening bond spreads and further steps by the Fed and the ECB, and last year the main topic was the US-China trade war.
Obviously, this year the heads of central banks will be discussing the consequences of the coronavirus crisis.
The three-day symposium will feature speakers and representatives from many central banks who can talk about their next steps in the context of monetary policy prospects. Tomorrow, August 27, the head of the US Fed, Jerome Powell, and the head of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem is expected to deliver a speech. In both the first and second cases, the fate of interest rates is of interest. If the heads of the Central Banks take a "dovish" position, then the respective currencies will receive an impulse for their decline.
Powell may then announce that the Fed will shift its inflation target to the average level. This will mean that the Central Bank will return to the issue of raising the rate only after inflation rises above the 2% level. Also, the head of the American regulator may declare that rates will remain low "for a long time", amid a weak recovery in the US economy. If Powell does deliver such rhetoric, the greenback will be under intense pressure. But if the head of the Federal Reserve limits itself to the arguments voiced earlier, dollar bulls may again show character.
In the context of the EUR/USD pair, this means that the price will either test the 19th figure or collapse to the bottom of the 17th price level, with possible testing of the 16th figure (an important support level is located at 1.1680, this is the lower border of the cloud Kumo on a monthly chart). The upper "ceiling" is located at 1.1920 (upper line of the Bollinger Bands at D1). If the head of the Federal Reserve takes a too "dovish" position (for example, if he again raises the issue of controlling the bond yield curve), then the pair may jump to the this year's maximum at 1.1960-1.1970. Here it is worth warning that the market, for the most part, expects "dovish" rhetoric from Powell. So if the inflated expectations is not met, the dollar will strengthen throughout the market, and in tandem with the euro will head towards the 16th figure.
Thus, this symposium will have a strong impact on the foreign exchange market, the dollar pairs, and above all on the euro-dollar pair. That is why the market will be waiting for the first results of the meeting. Trading decisions on the EUR/USD pair should be made only after Jerome Powell's speech, which will start tomorrow at approximately 13:00 UTC.
