EUR/USD – 1H.
On September 25, the EUR/USD pair performed a reversal near the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1695) and resumed the process of falling in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.1608). Thus, despite the closing of the pair's rate under the downward trend corridor, the mood of traders remains "bearish". Fixing the quotes below the Fibo level of 161.8% will increase the probability of a further fall towards the next corrective level of 200.0% (1.1513). The information background on Friday left much to be desired. There were almost no important messages, however, traders found reasons for new purchases of the US currency. Meanwhile, a large-scale reality show "elections" began in America. Although the vote is still 5 weeks away, I think everyone is already interested in this topic. At least the news feeds are no longer full of economic or epidemiological messages. And before the election, both candidates try to denigrate each other as much as possible. For example, Donald Trump believes that the Democrats are trying to suspend the development of a coronavirus vaccine since its appearance before the election will significantly increase the chances of Trump's re-election. Democrats also accuse Trump of appointing "their" judge to replace the recently deceased Ruth Ginsburg – the US Supreme Court. Moreover, both sides accuse each other of possible "foul play" in the election itself and are preparing to take the case to the US Supreme Court.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair were fixed under the side corridor, which allows traders to continue counting on a fall in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.1496). The pair's quotes broke out of the side corridor after two months of staying in it. There are no pending divergences in any indicator today, thus, only the level of 161.8% (1.1608) on the hourly chart can prevent bear traders from continuing to fall.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair quotes continue the process of falling in the direction of the Fibo level of 200.0% (1.1566). The pair's rebound from this level will work in favor of the euro and some growth in the direction of the corrective level of 261.8% (1.1825).
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has consolidated above the "narrowing triangle", which now allows us to count on further growth of the euro currency, which may be strong, but in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On September 25, there was no news in the European Union, and in America, a report on orders for long-term goods was released, which turned out to be as neutral as possible and did not cause any special reaction from traders.
The news calendar for the United States and the European Union:
EU - ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech (13:45 GMT).
On September 28, the calendar of economic events of the European Union contains only the speech of ECB President Christine Lagarde. In the US, the calendar is empty.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report was again very interesting. A week earlier, the "Non-Commercial" group was actively getting rid of long-term contracts for the euro currency. This week, the COT report showed that speculators were again actively increasing long-contracts for the euro. There were 15,499 of them open. This group of traders also opened short contracts in the amount of 5,890. A week earlier, I concluded that the mood of traders is changing in the direction of "bearish", however, the new COT report showed that it is again becoming "bullish". This means that the pair's fall may end in the near future. Moreover, there are five times more long contracts than short contracts in the hands of speculators. This means that professional traders are counting on the new growth of the European currency.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend selling the euro with a target of 1.1513, if the quotes are fixed at the level of 161.8% (1.1608) on the hourly chart. I do not recommend buying a pair today.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but for current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
