EUR/USD – 1H.
The EUR/USD pair performed a small increase on January 8, however, it resumed the process of falling and stopped near the corrective level of 76.4% (1.2182). A new downward trend line was formed, which characterizes the mood of traders as "bearish". Fixing the pair's rate above this line will work in favor of the EU currency and the beginning of a new growth process in the direction of the level of 1.2349. Meanwhile, in the United States, the circus continues. After the attack of demonstrators on the Capitol on January 6, it was Donald Trump who was blamed for the incident. Many believe that through social networks, the US president provoked an attack on Congress, as a result of which at least 4 people were killed. Congress believes that the president is dangerous for the country and cannot lead the country now or ever again. Thus, as early as today (at night), articles can be submitted to Congress, according to which the president, who should already resign on January 20, will be impeached. If everything comes to the consideration of the impeachment case by January 20, then we will witness the attitude of Republican senators toward Trump. A year and a half ago, they pulled their president out by voting against impeachment, now things may be different. Let me remind you that the US president is going to run for president in 2024. It seems that a lot of people are afraid of this.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes performed a drop to the ascending trend line. The rebound of quotes from this line will work in favor of the European currency and the resumption of growth in the direction of the corrective level of 200.0% (1.2353). Closing the pair's exchange rate under the trend line will work in favor of the US currency and resume falling in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2027). Today, the divergence is not observed in any indicator.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair continue the process of growth in the direction of the corrective level of 423.6% (1.2495). Until the moment when the pair performs consolidation under the level of 323.6%, there are still high chances of growth.
EUR/USD - Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On January 8, there were no news and reports in the European Union, and at least two fairly important and interesting economic reports were published in the United States. The unemployment rate in the United States did not change, and the report on Nonfarm was significantly worse than traders =' expectations. However, the day was dominated by the US currency.
US and EU news calendar:
On January 11, the US and EU news calendars are empty. Thus, the information background will be absent today.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The activity of major players in the New Year's week was very weak. The "Non-commercial" category of traders, according to the latest COT report of January 5, opened 2,072 long contracts and 3,078 short contracts. That is, approximately the same amount. The same applies to the "Commercial" category of traders and the total number of open long and short contracts. Firstly, these figures are very low, and secondly, without a serious bias in any direction. Simply put, speculators in the New Year rested and celebrated more than they made transactions in the foreign exchange market. Thus, there are no special changes following the results of the next week. The mood of traders remains "bullish". A couple of months ago, the beginnings of a new downward trend appeared, but the weakness of the dollar did not allow this option to be realized.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations to traders:
On Monday, I recommend selling the euro currency with targets of 1.2131 and 1.2072 on the hourly chart, if the close is made under the trend line on the 4-hour chart. New purchases of the pair can be opened with a target of 1.2353 when the quotes break off from the trend line on the 4-hour chart.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
