GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed three rebounds from the level of 1.3698 and then continued the process of falling in the direction of the corrective level of 76.4% (1.3522). Closing the pair's quotes below this level will increase the probability of a further fall in the direction of the next corrective level of 61.8% (1.3458). However, in general, the British pound is now trading like the euro. Thus, if the euro has a good chance of further decline, then the British can resume the growth process almost at any time. Traders are still not worried about the coronavirus in the UK, as well as the third "lockdown" and the extremely gloomy outlook for the British economy. The pound worked out the words of the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, about the problem of applying negative rates. Now it will be extremely difficult to find new reasons for growth. However, there have not been many of them in recent months, however, traders have found reasons to buy the British. Meanwhile, Joe Biden, who should officially become president the day after tomorrow, is preparing to pass several bills, some of which will cancel the initiatives of Donald Trump, some are aimed at repaying the "four crises". Biden's team believes that the country urgently needs to make radical decisions on the coronavirus, which has already claimed about 400,000 American lives, the economy, climate change, and racial discrimination. It is expected that quarantine requirements will be tightened, the number of tests conducted for coronavirus will be increased, almost $ 2 trillion will be allocated to support the economy, and the United States will return to the Paris Climate Agreement.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a new rebound from the corrective level of 127.2% (1.3701), a reversal in favor of the US currency, and began a new fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 100.0% (1.3481). Most likely, the pair will fall to this level. In the event of a rebound, a reversal in favor of the British currency and a new increase in quotes will follow.
GBP/USD - Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes performed a consolidation above the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513). Thus, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.4084). The closing of the pair below the level of 100.0% will work in favor of the US currency and a further decline in quotes.
GBP/USD - Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair closed above the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound are significantly increased.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Friday, the UK released reports on GDP and industrial production. GDP was slightly better than traders expected, while industrial production was slightly worse. In general, traders again did not pay due attention to these reports, as the whole day the British did nothing but fall.
US and UK news calendar:
UK - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech (13:30 GMT).
On January 18, Andrew Bailey will perform in the UK, the second in 2021. The first reaction was quite strong. No more events are expected today.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report from January 12 finally showed a major change in the mood of major market players. The "Non-commercial" category of traders opened 10,460 long contracts during the reporting week and this is the maximum number of open long contracts in recent months. Thus, the mood of speculators became sharply more "bullish". 3,200 short contracts were also opened. Thus, in general, speculators opened almost 14,000 new contracts, which also did not happen for a very long time. Traders seem to be starting to believe in the British pound again and are also ready to trade the pound more actively than in the last few months. Brexit is behind us, the UK and the EU continue to trade duty-free with each other, so interest in the British is starting to return.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
It is recommended to buy the British now when the quotes rebound from the level of 100.0% (1.3481) on the 4-hour chart with a target of 1.3625 on the hourly chart. It was recommended to sell the pound at the close of quotes under the level of 1.3625 on the hourly chart with the target of 1.3522. Now you can continue to hold open positions.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
