EUR/USD - 1H
Yesterday, EUR/USD made a downside reversal and resumed its fall towards the level of 1.1715, closing the trade below the correction level of 161.8% - 1.1772. The downward channel indicates the continuation of the bearish trend. Thus, the chances for the pair to extend its fall are quite high. At the same time, the fundamental background is quiet. On Monday, there were no events that could catch the attention of traders. Several reports were published at the end of last week, but traders did not react to them either. The market activity was rather low in the past two days although some economic reports were released on Friday. Besides, markets could summarize the results of Joe Biden's first press conference as President of the United States. However, unlike Donald Trump, who was always distinguished by eloquence and high-flown talk, Joe Biden did not tell anything that could interest traders. He read all the answers from a piece of paper, and the pile of booklets and cheat sheets he had at the press conference immediately went all over the Internet, as the journalists managed to take photos from all angles. The American public expressed doubts about the physical condition of the president who is 78 years old and is the oldest president in the history of the United States. Anyway, in recent days the downtrend has not been cancelled. This means that all factors, events, news, and reports did not discourage traders from buying the US dollar.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated below the level of 1.1836. Thus, the pair continues to fall towards the Fibo level of 127.2% - 1.1729. If the price closes below this level, it is likely to decline further to the next correction level of 100.0% - 1.1496. So far, none of the indicators has shown the formation of divergence today.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, EUR/USD has completed the consolidation below the correction level of 261.8% - 1.1822. Thus, the pair may continue its decline to the next Fibo level of 200.0% - 1.1566. The overall market sentiment remains bearish.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, EUR/USD consolidated above the narrowing triangle pattern, which indicates further growth of the pair in the long term.
News overview:
On March 29, the economic calendars of the EU and the US were completely empty. The information background did not have any effect on the pair's trajectory.
Economic calendar for US and EU:
Germany - Consumer Price Index (12-00 UTC).
US - Consumer Confidence Index (14-00 UTC).
On March 30, two reports will be released in the EU and the US that may be of interest to traders. However, I think that they will not have any impact on the markets either.
COT report (Commitments of traders):
Last Friday, another COT report was released which showed moderate changes this time. The category of non-commercial traders closed 1,766 long contracts and 953 short contracts during the reporting week. The numbers are very small, so I would say that there were almost no changes. In general, over the past month, bulls have considerably lost ground as a large number of long contracts has been closed, while many short contracts have been opened. In early February, the gap between the number of long and short contracts was threefold, at the moment it is less than twofold.
Forecast for EUR/USD and trading tips:
It was recommended to sell the pair if the price had closed below the area of 1.1822 - 1.1836 with the targets at 1.1772 and 1.1729 (1.1705). The first target has been reached, and the price is approaching the second one. Consolidation below the level of 1.1772 confirms short positions with the second target. We do not recommend buying the pair today as there was no clear rebound from the level of 1.1772.
TERMS:
Non-commercial traders - major market players, including banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, and large investors.
Commercial traders - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, and companies that buy currency not to obtain speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
Non-reportable positions refer to minor traders who do not have any significant impact on the price.
