08.04.202110:15 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD forecast for April 8, 2021

The main event of the previous trading day was the publication of the Federal Open Market Committee March meeting minutes. This news was undoubtedly in the focus of market participants. In general, the minutes of the last FOMC meeting were rather positive. Thus, the members of the Fed's board noted the encouraging and rather fast pace of the US economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. Naturally, the economic growth was fueled by the measures adopted by the US Federal Reserve, including a fiscal package worth $2 trillion aimed at saving the country from the coronavirus-related crisis, as well as a successful roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines across the country. In general, the FOMC March meeting minutes reflected the Fed's optimism regarding the pace of economic recovery, as well as balanced inflationary risks. Such upbeat and inspiring data supported the US dollar. It can be seen from the trading chart that the American currency gained in value.


Exchange Rates 08.04.2021 analysis

Thus, in the early American session, the euro/dollar pair moved upwards, rising to the level of 1.1914. Then investor sentiment as well as the market situation from a technical point of view changed due to data on the Fed minutes. According to the daily chart, the euro/dollar faced strong resistance near the 1.1910 level. As suggested earlier, in case the price breaks through the 1.1845 level, the next strong and significant resistance might be the level of 1.1909. However, in addition to the strong and challenging 1.1900 mark, there is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1909, passing from the 1.2242-1.1703 decline. Thus, the pair made a corrective pullback to the second level on the Fibonacci grid - 38.2%. But after the price advanced to 1.1914 and market sentiment changed, the price formed a bearish reversal candlestick on the daily chart, which looks like a gravestone pattern.

However, the pattern was not formed at the very end of the pair's rally. Besides, it has a slight lower shadow. Nevertheless, the formation of yesterday's candlestick amid attempts to break through the 1.1900 mark and the 38.2 Fibonacci level can be perceived as the completion of the euro/dollar pair's correction. This means that the pair is likely to resume its downward movement. At the moment of preparing this material, the quotes are moving upwards, trying to retest the strong price area of 1.1900-1.1915. However, to do this, the price needs to break above the blue Kijun line of the Ichimoku Cloud indicator, that is 1.1885. If the price closes today's trade above 1.1914 (yesterday's high), the euro/dollar pair will most likely continue its bullish run. In other words, bulls need to absorb yesterday's daily candlestick, pushing the price further up. In case the price forms another bearish pattern, this will confirm that the correction is over and the pair is ready to resume its downward movement.


Exchange Rates 08.04.2021 analysis

According to the hourly chart, it is rather difficult for bulls to drag the euro up. In particular, it is reflected in the long upper shadow of the current candlestick. In general, my trading recommendations for today include both long and short positions on the euro/dollar pair. If there are reversal candlestick signals on the way to 1.1900 on the H1 or H4 charts, it will be possible to sell the pair with a view to reaching the nearest target in the 1.1865-1.1855 area. As an alternative, in case of bullish candlestick signals, open long positions with the nearest target in the area of 1.1895-1.1905.

Good luck!

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Ivan Aleksandrov,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2021
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