The wave counting on the 4-hour chart is still quite unambiguous and looks quite understandable. The downward trend section, which originates at the beginning of this year, looks fully completed, although it is not completely clear whether it has taken the form a-b-c or a-b-c-d-e. However, what difference does it make if both layouts assume it's already complete? Once again, I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the wave counting itself is not so important, it is important whether you managed to make money on it. Thus, at this time, I believe that the downward trend section, which began in early January, has been completed, respectively, a new upward trend has begun its construction, which can take at least a three-wave form. If this assumption is correct, then the current rise in quotes continues only within its first wave. There is not even a single sign of the beginning of a corrective wave 2 or b . Thus, a new ascending part of the trend may turn out to be extended or even impulsive, which implies the construction of five upward waves.

The news background for the Euro/Dollar instrument on Friday was zero. On this day, one report on the producer price index was released in America, which never attracted the attention of the markets. There were also no important reports or events during the day. Thus, we have to pay attention to more extensive topics. Such as the $750 billion EU Recovery Fund. The main problem of the European economy now is the coronavirus. Its third wave and the low rate of mass vaccination. However, the number 2 problem in the EU is the lack of assistance from the European Commission to the most affected countries. More precisely, the aid has been agreed, but its payments have not yet begun. Let me remind you that Spain and Italy have suffered the most from the pandemic and the crisis. France, Portugal and a dozen other EU countries with smaller economies suffered serious economic losses. Thus, out of the €750 billion of the fund, about 360 will be provided in the form of grants. However, this money still needs to be received. Only when each country that claims money from the European budget provides a detailed plan for its intended use, will it be sent to the recipients. Moreover, the European Commission will strictly ensure that this money is spent exclusively according to plan. And in any case, this money will be received by the countries no earlier than the summer of 2021. Thus, until the summer, the European economy may continue to lag far behind the US in the pace of recovery.

Based on the analysis, I still expect the formation of a new upward wave, possibly the first in a new upward trend segment. I do not see any sense in defining targets so far, since a new trend segment is just emerging. Nevertheless, I expect the instrument to rise to a minimum of 1.1978, which corresponds to 50.0% Fibonacci. I recommend buying an instrument for each MACD "up" signal. The supposed wave 2 or b may begin to form soon.

The wave counting of the upward trend section still has a fully completed five-wave form and is not going to get complicated yet. But the part of the trend, which began its construction immediately after it, takes on a corrective, but quite understandable form. This part of the trend also looks quite complete.