04.05.202118:55 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analysis of EUR/USD on May 4, 2021. Eurozone business activity lags far behind US

Exchange Rates 04.05.2021 analysis

The wave counting on the 4-hour chart is still very clear. The instrument lost about 100 basis points on Friday, gained about 60 on Tuesday and started a new decline today. Sounds like a classic three-wave structure, doesn't it? Thus, if we assume that the construction of the first wave as part of the new upward trend is completed, then at the moment the construction of wave 2 or b has begun and continues. And this wave is also already nearing its completion, if it really takes on a simple, three-wave form. Thus, the rise in quotes may resume in the coming days. I still note that the current wave counting does not require any additions or adjustments. Thus, it is now possible to work and earn money using it. Unlike, for example, the wave counting of the Pound/Dollar instrument.

The news background for the Euro/Dollar instrument was quite interesting on Monday and Tuesday. Although, most of the news came on Monday, and on Tuesday practically nothing interesting happened either for the dollar or for the euro. By and large, only business activity indices in the manufacturing sectors of the European Union and the United States came out on Monday. If the European index fell slightly (to 62.9 points), but remained very high, then the American index also remained high, but at the same time fell by as much as 4 points. Thus, in part, an increase in the quotes of the instrument, which can be wave b in 2 or b, was also quite understandable from the point of view of the news background.

However, the markets are still more interested in the data on business activity in the service sectors. Let me remind you that the manufacturing sector quickly enough adapted to the conditions of the pandemic and quarantine, but the service sector has become a kind of catalyst for what is happening in this or that economy at this time. Data on business activity in these areas of the EU and the US will be released tomorrow, and it is the European index that interests me most of all. Its last value was 50.3. That is, the indicator is balancing "on the brink of an abyss." The value for April will remain unchanged - 50.3, but surprises are possible in May.

Most likely, business activity in this area of the EU will also remain above the 50.0 mark, but in the US this value is 63.7, that is, almost 14 points higher. It's not hard to guess which economy is doing better now, since it was the service sector that became the catalyst for economic recovery after the pandemic. However, despite the clear advantage of American statistics, the markets are still paying more attention to wave counting.

Based on the analysis, I still expect the construction of an upward trend. At this time, the construction of a correctional wave 2 or b has begun. Thus, I recommend waiting for the completion of the construction of this wave, rather than opening new buy deals with targets located near the 23rd figure and higher.

Exchange Rates 04.05.2021 analysis

The wave counting of the upward trend is still quite complete, in a five-wave form, and is not going to get complicated yet. But the section of the trend, which began its construction immediately after it, takes on a corrective, but quite understandable form. This part of the trend also looks quite complete. If the current wave counting is correct, then the construction of a new upward trend has now begun.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert
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