For the pound/dollar instrument, the wave markup continues to look very convincing and does not require adjustments. The downward section of the trend continues its construction within the framework of the wave e-E, and its internal wave marking looks quite complicated. Nevertheless, I have identified five waves inside this wave and, if my markup is correct, then wave 5, the last internal wave, is being built at this time. Thus, we get almost identical wave markings for the British and the European, each of which indicates the possible imminent completion of the downward trend section. Or everyone will have to take a much more complex and extended view, which can be facilitated by a weak news background or a complex geopolitical one. The wave 5-e-E may already be completed, but a successful attempt to break through the 1.2245 mark, which corresponds to 127.2% Fibonacci, indirectly indicates the opposite. However, now this wave can end at any moment, regardless of breakthroughs. If the current wave marking does not become more complicated, then the decline in the British dollar may be completed in the near future. At the moment, however, the market is not making any attempts to do this.
The report on British inflation may come as a shock to the market.
The exchange rate of the pound/dollar instrument increased by 15 basis points on May 16. There was no news background on this day. However, the market is already waiting for Wednesday, when the inflation report will be released in the UK. It is Wednesday, and not, for example, Tuesday, when important reports on unemployment and wages will also be released. The thing is that inflation at the end of April may jump immediately to 9.1% y/y. If this happens, it will exceed both European and American. This will mean that the British economy is in a much worse state than the other two. Although GDP grew by 0.8% in the first quarter, which is not so bad, inflation is now a key indicator. The Bank of England has raised its rate to 1%, but this is not bearing any fruit yet. If inflation rises even to 8%, it will still mean that all the efforts of the regulator are in vain so far. And the Briton, with such an acceleration in the consumer price index, can resume falling, because it will not mean that the regulator will now continue to raise the interest rate.
So far, both instruments do not continue to build a descending wave and a descending trend segment. Their markings are almost identical, which gives reason to assume that the downward trend in both cases will end at the same time. The two main instruments seem to be holding each other back from a new decline. But at the same time, if the statistics continue to disappoint, the market will conclude that it is not yet time for active purchases of a Briton or a European. At the moment, both instruments cannot even start a correction wave.
The wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument still assumes the completion of the construction of wave E. Now I also advise selling the instrument with targets located near the 1.1704 mark, which corresponds to 161.8% Fibonacci, since the attempt to break through the 1.2246 mark turned out to be successful. However, the construction of a downward section of the trend is nearing its completion and the mark of 1.2246 looks very good for the trend to end near it. A break of this mark from the bottom up will be a signal to close sales and, possibly, to open small purchases.
On the higher scale, the entire downward trend section looks fully equipped. Therefore, the continuation of the decline of the instrument below the 22nd figure is far from obvious. Wave E has taken a five-wave form and looks quite complete.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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