Analysis of Monday deals:

30M chart of the GBP/USD pair

The GBP/USD pair did not show any special movements on Monday either. The pair, like the euro/dollar, continued its sluggish retreat from last week's lows. Volatility was almost 80 points, which is an average value for the pound. It turns out to be a rather paradoxical situation: the pound obviously did not stand still, but at the same time the whole movement looks very weak, almost like a flat. The high volatility movements of recent weeks are to blame. The pound simply taught traders that passing 120-150 points a day is normal. So now 80 points look like nothing. Nevertheless, the pair managed to rise to the level of 1.2260 and very clumsily tried either to overcome it several times, or to rebound from it. It is not entirely clear even now. Moreover, on the 30-minute timeframe it is not at all clear what the trend is now. However, we have already talked about this - the trend is perfectly visible on the higher timeframes, and we need to focus on them now. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gave a speech, there were also parliamentary hearings on monetary policy. However, even judging by the way the pair moved (without sharp reversals and movements), it seems that the market was not interested in this information, and Bailey again did not mention anything important.

5M chart of the GBP/USD pair

Four terribly inaccurate signals were formed on the 5-minute timeframe on Monday. Even though the 1.2260 level is actually quite strong, the price almost ignored it. The chart clearly shows that all four signals were actually formed in a flat. If during the European trading session the pair was still trying to move in a trendy way, then it no longer did so in the afternoon. Thus, by the time the third signal was formed, it was already clear that there would be no movement. Beginners could work out the first two signals. One short position should have been opened for them, since these signals practically duplicated each other. In both cases, the price could not go down by even 15 points, so somewhere around the third signal, this deal should have been closed at a minimum loss and one should have left the market. The next two signals could not be worked out: there was no movement, two false signals near 1.2260.

How to trade on Tuesday:

The downward trend still persists on the 30-minute timeframe. There are still practically no bulls on the market, so the pound is practically not growing. Quite important reports will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday, so it will be possible to count on a more trendy movement than on Monday. However, these reports are unlikely to completely change the mood of the market from "absolutely bearish" to bullish. On the 5-minute TF, it is recommended to trade at the levels 1.2071, 1.2164, 1.2216, 1.2260, 1.2296, 1.2379-1.2409. When the price passes after opening a deal in the right direction for 20 points, Stop Loss should be set to breakeven. Reports on unemployment, applications for unemployment benefits and wages are set to be released in the UK on Tuesday. This is a medium importance data, so we do not expect a strong reaction to them - points 20-30. Data on US industrial production and retail sales are about the same in terms of importance. That is, we also expect a reaction of 20-30 points to them.

Basic rules of the trading system:

1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.

2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.

3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.

4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one, when all deals must be closed manually.

5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.

6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.