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09.03.2023 02:36 PM
Bitcoin makes a bearish breakdown of $22k amid DXY updates to February high: What's next?

The situation in the cryptocurrency market remains tense due to internal and external processes. The first month of spring passes under the banner of a decrease in investment activity in the crypto market and an aggravation of negative sentiment around digital assets.

Increasing macroeconomic concerns are adding to the tension in the market, and as a result, BTC continues to fall below the $22.5k level. Despite the deplorable situation, there is every reason to believe that the asset will be able to resume its upward movement.

Fundamental background

The likelihood of a local positive segment in the crypto market in no way cancels the fact that the industry is approaching a difficult period in the medium term. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon believes that the global trend in the global economy is inflation.

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This opinion is shared by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who hastened to soften his statements on March 8, after dropping global markets a day earlier. The head of the regulator said that inflation is declining, but at too slow a pace.

Powell also noted that the cost of ignoring inflation now would be very high. The official said that the decision on the pace of rate hikes has not yet been made, and everything will depend on the economic indicators that will be released on the eve of the Fed meeting.

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A strong labor market and weak deflationary movement will trigger further key rate hikes. However, regardless of the upcoming events, the CEO of Bank of America said he expects a technical recession in the third quarter of 2023.

BTC and Cryptocurrency Market Analysis

Bitcoin maintains a high level of correlation with stock indices, and therefore is especially sensitive to any statements by the Fed. Also, the price of the cryptocurrency reacts sharply to the situation around SPX and DXY.

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For example, the last decline in Bitcoin occurred in parallel with the achievement of the DXY local high in January. These are interconnected things, since the U.S. dollar index is again a key component in predicting the price movement of other assets.

Aside from the DXY, do not underestimate the sentiment within the crypto market. Santiment notes the growing negative sentiment on the market, and CryptoQuant, assessing funding rates, is betting on an increase in short positions in the near term.

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The number of Bitcoin whale addresses also continues to fall. The indicator fell to 1658, which is the minimum for the last three years. Glassnode sums up the results and states that the market is in a "transitional phase" and, despite the appearance of the first waves of investment injections, their significance for the market is too small.

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Meanwhile, Bitcoin has fallen past the $22k level, which is a bearish signal. For the first time in 5 days, the market has seen volume, but there is a sense that the price is going lower to accumulate liquidity before a shot upwards.

Results

The cryptocurrency market always plays against the expectations of the crowd, and when negative narratives are pumped up, a sharp upward spurt is quite likely. With this development of events, the main targets for the asset will be fixing above $22.5k–$23k. Holding this zone and subsequent consolidation will allow the asset to resume movement towards $24k–$25k.

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If the downward trend persists, BTC will retest the $21.3k level with a claim for the final consolidation below this level. In this case, the price will continue to fall to $20k–$20.3k, where the situation could be different.

Artem Petrenko,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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