28.03.2023 05:17 PM
Forecast for GBP/USD on March 28, 2023

The GBP/USD pair increased on Monday, and today it came quite near to the level of 1.2342, according to the hourly chart. The US dollar will once more benefit from the return of prices from this level, and some will fall in the direction of the level of 1.2238. The likelihood of further growth toward the subsequent level of 1.2432 will rise if the pair's rate is closed above 1.2342. Trading participants can still anticipate a decrease if the pair is closed within an upward corridor.

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On Monday, Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, was scheduled to speak. Although there is currently no evidence available regarding this, it may be concluded that Bailey did not say anything significant. He will be giving another address today; we'll wait for the important details. The pound is increasing again, and it is impossible to explain why it does so with no information background and after several weeks of growth. The most "hawkish" scenario may be reflected in prices by traders who are merely unsure of what to anticipate from the British regulator in the near future.

Additionally, keep in mind that there is a good chance the Fed will increase the rate by one more time. James Bullard of the Fed has already acknowledged this. The American regulator no longer needs to tighten as swiftly as feasible because the United States inflation is declining at a sufficient rate. However, it is doubtful that the Bank of England will keep tightening the PEPP for very long. As a result, I think that a lot of things right now are pointing to the fall of the British pound. Bears are still hesitant to enter the market after closing under the trend channel. The issue is hazy and confusing. The most significant activities are planned for Thursday and Friday. Traders could use the first three days of the week for a downturn, but they are not aiming for this just yet.

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The pair reversed course in favor of the British pound on the 4-hour chart and started to rise again toward the level of 1.2441. A new "bearish" divergence in the MACD indicator may be developing soon, allowing us to predict a new reversal in favor of the dollar and some decline. Closing over a downward trend corridor, however, still has a strong possibility of sustaining growth.

Report on Commitments of Traders (COT):

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Over the past reporting week, the attitude of merchants in the "Non-commercial" category has hardly changed. The number of long contracts held by investors dropped by 3682 units, while the number of short contracts dropped by 498. The big players' overall outlook is still "bearish," and there are still more short-term contracts than long-term contracts. Although things have been steadily shifting in favor of the British pound over the past few months, there are still a lot more speculators holding long positions than short ones. As a result, the pound's future is looking better, yet the British pound hasn't changed much over the past six months. There was a break outside the declining corridor on the 4-hour chart, and the pound is currently supported. I do observe that several current factors are at odds with one another, and the information background does not offer the pound much support.

The following is the UK and US news calendar:

UK – speech by the head of the Bank of England Bailey (08:45 UTC).

The UK and the US each have one significant entry for Tuesday on their calendars of economic events. The information background may not have much of an impact on the traders' disposition today.

Forecast for GBP/USD and trading advice:

When the British pound rises above 1.2342 with a target of 1.2238, sales of the currency are probable. Since the close took place within an upward trend corridor on the hourly chart, I now view the pair's buying as impractical.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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