Analysis of Deals and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen
The test of the price at 154.63 occurred when the MACD indicator began its upward movement from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point into the market. However, as you can see on the chart, the dollar didn't go anywhere, and all I managed was to exit the purchases with minimal losses. There are no US statistics in the second half of the day, so approaching purchases at annual highs should be extremely cautious, and action should be taken after calculating all the risks. Any intervention by the Bank of Japan at current levels may make many traders regret buying the dollar. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when reaching the entry point around 154.80 (green line) to rise to 155.15 (thicker green line on the chart). I will exit purchases around 155.15 and open sales in the opposite direction (counting on a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). It's unlikely to count on the pair's rise today. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 154.50 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market upwards. Expect a rise to the opposite levels of 154.80 and 155.15.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after updating the level of 154.50 (red line on the chart), leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 154.19, where I will exit sales and open purchases in the opposite direction (counting on a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of an unsuccessful breakout of the annual maximum. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 154.80 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the downward market. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 154.50 and 154.19.
What's on the chart:
Thin green line – entry price, at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line – the presumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line – entry price, at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line – the presumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, using overbought and oversold zones is important.
Important. Beginner traders in the forex market must be very careful when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must place stop orders to lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
