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Forex Analysis & Reviews

We present to you the daily updated section of market analysis prepared by professional analysts of InstaForex Company. Each of the specialists represented in this section, carries out analytical reviews in accordance with his/her vision of the current situation on foreign exchange and other markets. However, the outlooks below are only recommendations and not instructions to any actions; they contain analysis of the current situation on the currency market. In some cases the analysts' opinions to changes in the current market situation can differ, in this way, we recommend you to follow the publications of only one analyst, who in your view most clearly and correctly evaluates the situation on the international Forex market.

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Sebastian Seliga
Fundamental analysis
2016-04-25
257
visited:
This will be busy week for all the central banks and plenty of fundamental data from the Fed and BoJ is scheduled for release during the week. Moreover, first quarter GDP reports from the UK and US, together with inflation data from the eurozone and the US as well are ready to be released later on the week. The most anticipated event is surely the BoJ policy meeting and interest rate decision (on Thursday), because the BoJ is expected to announce new stimulus measures. The Fed announcement on Wednesday is the event to keep an eye on as well, mainly because the unexpected rate hike might cause a high volatility environment in financial markets. In conclusion, this seems to be the week to keep traders on their toes, so caution and proper money management are strongly advised. ...
Sebastian Seliga
Fundamental analysis
2016-04-19
354
visited:
The New York Fed President William Dudley spoke yesterday about the future Fed policy concerning the interest rates. In his opinion the current economic environment is highly in favor of a further rate hike, but the Fed remains cautious and data depended. He reiterated, that he was confident that too low inflation would climb to a 2% target over the next few years if the current economic growth is sustained. In conclusion, his speech was very hawkish and in favor of a next rate hike. Please remember, that Fed Chairperson Janet Yellen reiterated in the last conference speech that two more rate hikes this year are still on the table. ...
Sebastian Seliga
Fundamental analysis
2016-04-18
309
visited:
During the recent meeting in Doha, OPEC and non-OPEC countries failed to agree on an output freeze. The growing tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran and the inability of the other oil producers to agree on a loose commitment to freeze output for a short period of time was the main reason for the talks collapse. In conclusion, the oil was sold heavily after the news and currently there is no real reason for it not to fall even further as Iran strongly claims to return to the pre-sanctions levels. Declining crude oil production in the USA might help support the prices to some extent. The next OPEC meeting is in June. ...
Felipe Erazo
Fundamental analysis
2016-04-18
190
visited:
USDX is finding dynamic support above the 200 SMA, but the overall structure is bearish, as the price action is favoring the lower low pattern formations on a short-term basis....
Ahsan Aslam
Fundamental analysis
2016-04-14
281
visited:
Downside movements are expected to prevail in NZD/USD. The pair clearly reversed down, and is now capped by its falling 20-period and 50-period moving averages on an intraday basis. The relative strength index is mixed to bearish below its neutrality area at 50. Furthermore, the key resistance at 0.69 should maintain the strong selling pressure on the price. In this case, as long as 0.69 holds on the upside, look for a new decline to 0.6820 and 0.6790 in extension....
Harsh Japee
Fundamental analysis
2016-03-31
308
visited:
The GBP/CHF pair is showing mixed signals for now and it is trading lower at 1.3830 levels. Please note that the pair has stalled and reversed from the Fibonacci 0.618 resistance of the drop between 1.4050 and 1.3720 levels....
Sebastian Seliga
Fundamental analysis
2016-03-22
439
visited:
The UK inflation rate was unexpectedly unchanged in February, remaining far below the Bank of England's 2 percent goal.The Office for National Statistics revealed this morning that the consumer price index was at the level of 0.3% (vs. 0.4% expected and 0.3% prior). Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, remained at the level of 1.2 percent. In conclusion, the inflation level has been stubbornly low for the last two years, largely due to lower oil prices. The BoE Governor Mark Carney reiterated last week that there are low chances that the interest rate will be cut or that it will enter the negative territory. Thus,the next move should result in a long-time rate increase. ...
Sebastian Seliga
Fundamental analysis
2016-03-22
375
visited:
The German Ifo Business Climate data was released this morning. A slight improvement can be noticed as the indicator was at the level of 106.7 points, beating expectations of 106.1 and prior reading of 105.7. Nevertheless, the next sentiment data in the form of ZEW Survey was worse than expected. The ZEW Current Situation indicator decreased to the level of 50.7 from 52.3 in the last month and was below the forecast of 53.0. The ZEW Economic Sentiment indicator declined to the level of 4.3 (5.9 expected), but was better than the last month's figures of 1.0. In conclusion, the overall business and economic sentiment did not improve significantly despite the recent ECB actions, including expansion of the QE program. This is not a good sign and it should put more pressure on the euro....
Sebastian Seliga
Fundamental analysis
2016-03-21
435
visited:
In the USA, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 90.0 points in March, down 1.7 points from a month before. According to the report, this unexpected worsening in sentiment was caused by concerns of increasing petrol prices and mounting expenses. Moreover, another important fact is the employment situation and wages: the number of employed people is increasing steadily, but there is no chance for any increase in salaries and wages. In conclusion, the current situation is deteriorating compared to 2000 when the confidence index reached its all-time high at 112. ...
Sebastian Seliga
Fundamental analysis
2016-03-21
388
visited:
For this week there are still some important pieces of economic data that is due out, with a particular focus on the UK fundamental data release. This week should be more quiet mainly because of the upcoming Easter Bank Holiday. Nevertheless, the inflation data on Tuesday and the retail sales figures on Thursday will be watched closely by the Bank of England mainly due to the 2% inflation projection level for 2016. In conclusion, the weak data might initiate the assistance program from the BoE, despite the recent remarks made by Mark Carney. He said that the next central bank move will be more likely to increase the interest rate than to decrease it. ...
Sebastian Seliga
Fundamental analysis
2016-03-18
507
visited:
Despite the expanded stimulus program from the European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank kept the interest rates on hold at the level of -0.75%, together with 3-Month Libor lower and upper target ranges at the levels of -1,25% and -0,25%, respectively. This decision might have very negative consequences because the ECB "bazooka program" launched this Wednesday may eventually put the Swiss currency under upward pressure versus the euro. In conclusion, the extended period of negative interest rates might weaken the demand for the franc by making it less attractive for investors from overseas. Even if negative rates are also intended to support economic growth by encouraging banks to lend more to consumers and businesses, the recent extension of QE program from the ECB might be more damaging than helping the Swiss economy in the longer run....
Sebastian Seliga
Fundamental analysis
2016-03-18
524
visited:
Yesterday, the Bank of England left the interest rate on hold at the level of 0.50%, together with unchanged asset purchase facility at the level of 375B pounds. The BoE members voted unanimously 9 to 0 in favor of unchanged interest rates. It was the second month in a row when policy makers were unequivocal on the decision, after Ian McCafferty abandoned his rate hike vote in February referring to a weaker outlook for wages....
Sebastian Seliga
Fundamental analysis
2016-03-17
490
visited:
The New Zealand GDP data , together with the current account to GDP, were released overnight. The data turned out to be better than expected. In the final quarter of 2015, the GDP had increased from the level of 0.9% q/q; 2.3% y/y ( 0.7% q/q; 2.1% y/y expected) and account deficit to GDP was released at the level of 0.9% q/q; 2.3% y/y (0.7% q/q; 2.1% y/y expected). Business services were the main catalyst of the robust rise in production last quarter, edging 1.5%, while construction surged 2.5%. Retail trade and accommodation also increased last quarter, up 1.7% amid record number of tourists coming to New Zealand. The worst performer was agriculture sector with production falling 1.7% due to lower beef and sheep output. In conclusion, the overall GDP for 2015 was at the level of 2.3%, lower than 2014 GDP from the level of 4.1%. For this year RBNZ projects the GDP at the level of 2.6% and further accelerations to 3% by March 2017. ...
Sebastian Seliga
Fundamental analysis
2016-03-17
427
visited:
The US Federal Reserve has kept the short - term interest rate unchanged at the level of 0.50%, but during the press conference the Fed Chair Jannet Yellen eased the monetary policy through words. The Fed noted that moderate growth of the US economy and robust job gains would allow it to tighten the policy this year, but instead of previously anticipated four-rate hikes, new fresh economic projections might allow only two more hikes by the end of the year. ...
Sebastian Seliga
Fundamental analysis
2016-03-16
474
visited:
The American Petroleum Institute report regarding its inventory levels of the US crude oil, gasoline, and distillates stocks revealed lower than expected build in inventories. The market participants expected a gain of 3,400K barrels this week, down from 4,400K barrels last week, but the number revealed was 1,500K barrels only. Oil prices are also being carefully monitored by the Federal Reserve and other central banks, as developed economies continue to grapple with ultra-low inflation levels, fueled by the collapse in oil prices. In conclusion, this is somehow an encouraging sign of an increased short-term demand for oil, but it is still not enough to tame the oversupplied global oil market ...
Sebastian Seliga
Fundamental analysis
2016-03-16
423
visited:
The FED will announce its further monetary policy today at 07:00pm GMT, together with interest rate decision, economic projection and press conference. The U.S. central bank is expected to keep the Federal funds rate unchanged at 0.50% as economic fundamentals are weaker than those in December that prompted the first rate hike after starting an easing monetary policy 7 years ago. In that case, market participants will focus on the economic projections and the language of the rate statement. In conclusion, no hike is expected, but Jannet Yellen's press conference will give more insight to investors regarding the confidence of the Central Bank on the state of the U.S. economy. ...
Sebastian Seliga
Fundamental analysis
2016-03-15
328
visited:
The RBA's meeting minutes published yesterday showed that the central bank maintained easing bias in March, but it sees no immediate need for further cuts in the key interest rate. The RBA was contented with the progress the Australian economy is making in rebalancing non-mining sectors, helped by low interest rates and the depreciation of the exchange rate over the past couple of years. Nevertheless, the RBA has become increasingly worried about the global financial conditions since the beginning of the year, mainly due to fears over China's economic situation and unstable outlook for monetary policy in other major economies. In conclusion, low inflation provides room for further interest rate cuts, but the central bank remains cautious amid hints that global uncertainty has been impacting the domestic economy so far....
Sebastian Seliga
Fundamental analysis
2016-03-15
429
visited:
The Bank of Japan has left the current interest rate negative at -0.10% as anticipated and hasn't increased the annual monetary base above 80T. Nevertheless, in the official statement at the press conference BoJ sounded pessimistic about the economy and warned that weak inflation would continue. BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda noted that exports and output was down due to slowing growth in emerging economies. In conclusion, further easing steps will likely be applied in April, with many experts expecting the BoJ to expand monetary stimulus next month. ...
Sebastian Seliga
Fundamental analysis
2016-03-14
480
visited:
In the regional elections taken place last Sunday the German voters punished Chancellor Merkels conservatives, giving a thumbs-down to her open-door refugee policy and turning in droves to the anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD). The result is a big setback for Merkel, who has led eurozone's largest economy for a decade, and could narrow her room to maneuver as she tries to convince her EU partners to seal a deal with Turkey to stem the tide of migrants. ...
Sebastian Seliga
Fundamental analysis
2016-03-14
425
visited:
China's industrial production growth has slowed to the weakest level since the financial crisis, sparking concerns over the global recovery. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, industrial output increased by 5.4% in January and February (5.6% expected; 5.9% prior), the worst performance since 2008. Moreover, retail sales growth slowed to 10.2% from 10.8% a month ago (and 11.1% in December 2015). Recent data also revealed that China's exports plunged 25.4% in February compared with the same month last year, biggest monthly drop since 2009. In conclusion, the recent data intensify concerns over economy's health, and the majority of investors might start to buy safer assets like gold, yen or Swiss franc. ...
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