The US Federal Reserve System (FRS) will have to raise the interest rates and diverge from the quantitative easing policy. Such an opinion was passed by Aleksandr Khandruev, a former first deputy head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in the "Dialogs with Mikhail Khazin" TV-show on the RBK-TV. Now he is the first deputy head of the Association of Regional Banks.

"I think that FRS will finally have to raise the interest rates and diverge from the quantitative easing policy. On the other hand, I suppose that there is a necessity in some extra activities for solving the problem of irrevocable debts", - he announced.

M. Khazin, the host and the head of the "Neokon" expert consulting company, has added that by the end of April, 2011 the USA would make a decision in principal. "On the one hand, stagnation effects are increasing, real estate market is falling down, the consumer confidence level is lowering; it means that it is necessary to ease the monetary policy, in other words, to reduce the cost of credit and prolong the emission programs. On the other hand, the consumer inflation is starting to grow: it has increased five-fold during the last five months – from 0.1% in October last year to 0.5% a month in February 2011", - he said. At the same time M. Khazin has emphasized that it was an "actual bifurcation point: it is necessary to toughen the situation or reduce the cost of credit".

Talking about the necessity of changing the crediting model, A. Khandruev noted: "In this situation it is necessary to take in account two models: the model of developing countries – China and India, where it is necessary to limit crediting because it is developing in too gathering paces. In other countries, like the USA, it is necessary to get out of economic recession and stimulate crediting". "But how is it possible to stimulate crediting if debts of US enterprises and people are so large that it is very difficult to give new loans?" – he asked a rhetorical question. Moreover, A. Khandruev has noticed that low interest rates, the quantitative easing policy "stimulate the speculative capital movement, so-called, carry trade". According to his words, economy, however, does not have any profit from low interest rates and crediting does not increase, it brings profit to stock speculators.

As M. Khazin noticed, total loan portfolio growth rates have become especially large during the last 30 years, a share of the financial sector in the corporations’ total profit and in the GDP structure had increased significantly, for example, more than twice in the USA – from 20% to 50%. "If to start the monetary policy toughening and credit cost increasing, it will cause the reduction of this share. It actually means that the sector which was determining the whole economic policy, including the Russian economic policy, will start going down. It will cause significant changes", - he said.

The deputy head of the Association of Regional Banks has passed an opinion that "considering the global crisis and the current situation, the crediting model will be developing in such a way, that all crediting types which have high potential risks will be limited by regulators, which will require setting up large reserves against them". "So banks will go to the niches which are not connected with forming of large reserves for banks", - former first deputy head of the Central Bank said.

In conclusion, M. Khazin noted that "today the problem of crediting model is the most important for both: the world and the Russian economies, because it is necessary to resolve two absolutely different problems at the same time". "The first one: it is necessary to preserve and carefully sort out the accumulated debts. On the other hand, it is necessary to switch from the refinancing of this debt to its total repayment, and it complicates giving new loans and economy stimulation", - he added.

"Dialogs with…" TV-show is broadcasted on RBK-TV at 20:35on weekdays, the rebroadcast is on the next day at 13:35 and on weekends. The hosts are professional financiers and iconic figures of the Russian economy: Mikhail Khazin (on Mondays), Viktor Gerashenko (on Tuesdays), and Sergey Aleksashenko (on Thursdays). "Dialogs with …" is a conversation about the most thorny and actual problems of the Russian financial life. Just this program helps to know firsthand about a real alignment of forces in the Russian economy and what development perspectives and world’s crisis phenomena are.