Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair
EUR/USD tested 1.0744 when the MACD line was far above zero, keeping the chances of a reversal and a decline. As such, it was not surprising that the quote fell by more than 30 pips and hit 1.0710, while the MACD line went to the oversold area. The second test of the level prompted a buy signal, but there was no upward movement, leading to losses.
Euro bulls did not manage to push the price up as there were no EU statistics released yesterday. In addition, the persistent rise of inflation in the US once again calls for more aggressive monetary policy, which, incidentally, ECB President Christine Lagarde is also asking. But so far no serious adjustments have been made to the actions of the central bank.
Today, a report on industrial orders will be published in Germany, followed by the index of business activity in the construction sector. Weak figures will certainly increase the pressure on the euro, so it is not advisable to take long positions. As for the Eurozone sentix investor confidence report, it is unlikely to seriously affect market sentiment.
In the afternoon, the US will release a report on the foreign trade balance, where a reduction may lead to a rise in dollar demand. Further rise will occur amid good growth in retail sales, as well as a speech from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
For long positions:
Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.0689 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0729 (thicker green line on the chart). There is a chance for a rally today, but only if the upcoming EU statistics exceed expectations. Nevertheless, note that when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.0655, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0689 and 1.0729.
For short positions:
Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.0655 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0619. Pressure will return if market reaction to EU statistics are not positive. However, note that when selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 1.0689, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0655 and 1.0619.
What's on the chart:
The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.
The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.
MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
