empty
 
 

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Dollar took revenge after the euro rose. Will the EUR/USD pair get stuck in a bearish swamp?
time 16.08.2022 10:01 AM
time Rilevanza fino a, 18.08.2022 08:16 AM

This image is no longer relevant

The US currency is full of energy, which it has shown during the rise in the EUR/USD pair. However, experts do not exclude that the European currency will be able to outperform its competitor, but only in a short run.

According to experts, at the moment the greenback is one of the most reliable assets that have confirmed the status of a safe-haven currency. The US currency was near a weekly high on Tuesday, August 16, while many key currencies remained under pressure. The reason is the deterioration of global economic data, which increased the risks of a recession.

Against this backdrop, the euro rate against the dollar reached six-week highs, exceeding the psychologically important milestone of 1.0200. The euro traded above the indicated level at the beginning of this week, but then fell to the critical 1.0157. The EUR/USD pair showed the effects of a collapse on Tuesday morning, August 16, hovering near 1.0160 amid strong USD buying pressure.

This image is no longer relevant

According to analysts, in the near future the single currency will be supported by the weakening of the greenback and the easing of China's monetary policy. Earlier, the euro strengthened to its highest level in the last month, soaring after the release of data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The reason is the likelihood of lower inflationary pressures.

However, many experts are pessimistic about the medium and long-term prospects for the euro. Currency strategists are sure that the trend towards the weakening of the single currency will last until the end of 2022 - the beginning of 2023. Fueling the fire are fears of a recession as Germany's energy crisis deepens. The specialists expect a long downward trend in EUR due to energy problems and economic disunity in the euro bloc countries. According to forecasts, in the short term, the EUR/USD pair will head towards 0.9600. Experts also allow the euro to stagnate against other world currencies.

However, the single currency's chances to win back will increase if the European Central Bank raises the key rate by 50 bps at the September meeting. In such a situation, a short-term rise in the euro in the range of 1.0400-1.0500 is possible. The euro will be supported by the reduction of interest rates by the People's Bank of China (PBOC). This measure will be aimed at strengthening the national economy, experts emphasize. Recall that on Monday, August 15, the market faced disappointing statistics on business activity in China, which included industrial production, retail sales and investment in fixed assets. Against this background, investors preferred to invest in the dollar, saving their capital due to increased concerns about the growth of the global economy.

The mass exodus of markets in USD is also due to the expectation of the release of the minutes of the FOMC meeting, scheduled for Wednesday, August 17th. According to analysts, the document may contain information demonstrating the Federal Reserve's intentions regarding future rate hikes. This minutes is able to influence the market assessment of the September Fed rate hike, which will ultimately affect the greenback's dynamics.

In a recent Fed speech, it was noted that "a significant change in interest rate policy" is still far away. However, such changes are not far off, Barclays economists believe. The bank's specialists adhere to the current forecast for the interest rate, which provides that the central bank will increase it by 50 bps in September, and in November and December 2022 it will be reduced to 25 bps. The current minutes of the Fed's meeting, due out on Wednesday, will be a turning point for determining the near-term outlook for the market amid uncertainty about monetary policy and how to fight inflation further.

Larisa Kolesnikova,
Esperto analista di InstaForex
© 2007-2023
EURUSD
Euro vs US Dollar
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Start trade
Start trade

Le recensioni analitiche di InstaForex ti renderanno pienamente consapevole delle tendenze del mercato! Essendo un cliente InstaForex, ti viene fornito un gran numero di servizi gratuiti per il trading efficiente.

  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST
  • Chancy Deposit
    Deposit your account with $3,000 and get $10000 more!
    In January we raffle $10000 within the Chancy Deposit campaign!
    Get a chance to win by depositing $3,000 to a trading account. Having fulfilled this condition, you become a campaign participant.
    JOIN CONTEST
  • Trade Wise, Win Device
    Top up your account with at least $500, sign up for the contest, and get a chance to win mobile devices.
    JOIN CONTEST
  • 100% Bonus
    Your unique opportunity to get a 100% bonus on your deposit
    GET BONUS
  • 55% Bonus
    Apply for a 55% bonus on your every deposit
    GET BONUS
  • 30% Bonus
    Receive a 30% bonus every time you top up your account
    GET BONUS

Recommended Stories

Borse asiatiche prevalentemente in rialzo

I principali indici asiatici continuano a salire, anche se non tanto quanto nelle contrattazioni di ieri. Così, il Nikkei 225 giapponese è salito solo dello 0,05%, mentre l'S&P/ASX 200 australiano

16:37 2023-01-27 UTC+2

USD/JPY risucchiato dal pantano

Questa mattina la coppia USD/JPY è caduta di nuovo al centro delle speculazioni su una possibile inversione di tendenza della Banca del Giappone. Questo argomento non lascia andare i trader

Аlena Ivannitskaya 09:12 2023-01-27 UTC+2

EUR/USD: l'inchino d'addio del biglietto verde

Giovedì, la coppia EUR/USD è stata scambiata in un intervallo ristretto, consolidando i suoi recenti guadagni ai livelli più alti da aprile dello scorso anno, registrati all'inizio di questa settimana

Viktor Isakov 14:02 2023-01-26 UTC+2

La sterlina resiste al ribasso

La valuta britannica riflette con successo gli attacchi della tendenza al ribasso, anche se il calo periodico di GBP dà agli investitori motivo di essere pessimisti. Tuttavia, la sterlina

Larisa Kolesnikova 09:03 2023-01-25 UTC+2

L'intrigo attorno alla coppia USD/JPY cresce

Alla fine della scorsa settimana lo yen giapponese è sceso rispetto al dollaro statunitense. E nei prossimi giorni, la coppia USD/JPY potrebbe scendere ulteriormente. Ciò è ora indicato

Аlena Ivannitskaya 12:28 2023-01-23 UTC+2

L'euro illumina le stelle

Per la moneta europea, a differenza di quella americana, la nuova settimana è iniziata con un rialzo. Gli esperti hanno fissato il ravvicinamento del prezzo dell'euro ai valori di picco

Larisa Kolesnikova 08:09 2023-01-23 UTC+2

"Montagne d'oro": l'oro ha spazio per crescere

Il metallo giallo ha iniziato quest'anno con una forte crescita e continua il suo trend positivo. Di tanto in tanto, l'oro diminuisce, ma per lo più rimane in una tendenza

Larisa Kolesnikova 09:16 2023-01-20 UTC+2

Dollaro: un generatore di sorprese? Primi passi verso la crescita

Quest'anno, la valuta americana è in grado di presentare molte sorprese ai venditori, affermano gli analisti. Su questo non ci sono dubbi: il biglietto verde ha più volte dimostrato

Larisa Kolesnikova 10:35 2023-01-18 UTC+2

I principali indici asiatici si muovono prevalentemente al ribasso

I principali indici asiatici nelle negoziazioni di oggi sono per lo più in ribasso. La maggior parte degli indici mostra un calo, con i cinesi Shanghai Composite e Shenzhen Composite

14:01 2023-01-17 UTC+2

Bitcoin chiude la settimana in netto rialzo

Venerdì mattina "l'oro digitale" è iniziato con un movimento laterale. Al momento della pubblicazione dell'articolo, il prezzo di BTC si mantiene a 19.022$. Secondo il sito di monitoraggio delle risorse

Irina Maksimova 14:53 2023-01-13 UTC+2
In questo momento non potete parlare al telefono?
Ponete la vostra domanda nella chat.