At the beginning of this week, the pair consolidated above Weekly Control Zone 1/2 106.53-106.46, which suggests an increase in the probability of growth to 70%. The next goal is the weekly control zone 107.81-107.62. Purchases which were opened on August 20, after testing the WCZ 1/4, must be kept in the expectation of further growth. In addition, new sales are possible after the release and consolidation above the upper boundary of the local flat.
The probability of continued flat is still high, so any decrease to the lower boundary must be used to enter purchases. The depreciation of the entire current month leads to going beyond the monthly control zone, which ultimately makes it possible to work to return to its limits with a probability of 90%.
Meanwhile, an alternative decline model has a low probability. Therefore, it is not recommended to enter the sales. However, the reduction must be used to enter a long position or to increase the volume of the already open. It is important to understand that closing a month within a monthly control zone or inside it is above 70%.
Daily CZ - daily control zone. An area formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.
Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.
Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. An area that reflects the average volatility over the past year.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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