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JPMorgan sees oil at $380 on Russia's retaliatory crude output cuts

JPMorgan sees oil at $380 on Russia's retaliatory crude output cuts

Major investment bank JPMorgan Chase & Co predicts that oil prices could soon reach $380 per barrel if US and European sanctions prompt Russia to take retaliatory measures.

The Group of Seven nations are currently creating a mechanism to cap the price of Russian oil. In response, Russia could slash daily crude production by 5 million barrels without severe damage to the national economy, JPMorgan warns. As a result, such a decision could lead to disastrous consequences for other countries, experts believe.

A 3 million-barrel cut in daily supplies would push global commodity prices up to $190. In the worst-case scenario, suggesting a reduction in supplies by 5 million barrels, oil may soar to a "stratospheric" $380 per barrel, JPMorgan pointed out.

The bank's analysts stress that the "most obvious and likely" risk to the European economy is that Russia could retaliate by reducing exports of commodities. This measure will "inflict pain on the West", experts stated.

Earlier, the leaders of the G7 countries announced their intention to implement a price cap on Russian oil with a view to reducing Moscow’s revenues. At the same time, the European Union imposed an embargo on offshore oil supplies from Russia as part of its sixth package of sanctions. Experts warn that these political decisions could provoke an imbalance in the global market.

According to the report on the current state of the Russian oil and gas industry in the face of sanctions, Kept predicted that Russia's oil production, excluding gas condensate, would decline by 10% to 438 million tons by the end of 2022. The current drop in output is offset by rising commodity prices. Since the beginning of this year, global benchmark Brent crude has surged by 50%, from $75 to $110 per barrel.

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