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4-hour timeframe

Exchange Rates 08.04.2020 analysis

Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 25.8662

The EUR/USD currency pair shows all the signs that it wants to resume the upward movement in accordance with our hypothesis about the formation of a "correction against correction". Recall that after the strongest fall in the quotes of the euro/dollar pair in the period between March 9 and 20, an upward correction followed, also not weak, then a downward correction, and now we can witness a new round of upward correction in the area of $1.10. If this hypothesis is correct, the pair will continue to grow on April 8 with the target - the Murray level of "2/8"-1.0986. At the moment, it can be noted that the pair overcame the moving average line, so the trend has already changed to an upward one. Doubts are now only caused by the lines Senkou span B and Kijun-sen, which the pair rested on the 4-hour chart in the trading system on the Ichimoku indicator. We discussed the situation in this article. Thus, the successful overcoming of these lines will increase the probability of further upward movement.

On Wednesday, April 8, no important macroeconomic statistics are planned again in the United States and the European Union. Thus, traders will again be deprived of the macroeconomic background, which still has no effect on the movement of the pair. Nevertheless, the macroeconomic data still arouse some interest. We have said many times that sooner or later the crisis and panic will end and the economies of all countries will begin to recover. And that's when all the indicators will be important to assess the scale of losses from the "coronavirus" epidemic. Accordingly, this data will be important for currency exchange rates. Now the market is consolidating. Although volatility remains high, there is no longer a trend in the long term. Each subsequent movement after a reversal is weaker than the previous one. Thus, as long as such "corrections against corrections" are not completed, the resumption of the trend movement should not be expected.

Meanwhile, the Council of Finance Ministers of the European Union, which is called the "Eurogroup", is considering a package of assistance for the European economy, which has suffered from the "coronavirus" epidemic. This stimulus package will be akin to the $2 trillion package adopted in the United States. Since money is not taken from anywhere, this money will simply be printed by the ECB. Or taken on credit. Or half taken on credit and printed. After that, they will be invested in the economy to minimize the consequences of quarantine measures, during which the economy is idle. The Chairman of the Eurogroup Mario Centeno expressed the hope that "Finance Ministers approved a powerful response to the pandemic coronavirus". "This will be the largest aid program in the history of the Eurogroup. We need our own plan that will help protect the most vulnerable states of the European Union in order to guarantee the exit of the single European market from this crisis without major losses," Centeno said. The 540-billion aid package will include programs that have already been announced. First, the program to protect jobs. That is, in fact, assistance to businesses that can actively lay off their workers during the crisis. Second, the European Investment Bank's 200 billion euro program to help small and medium-sized businesses. This money will most likely be provided in the form of cheap loans to finance the current activities of companies that have been affected by the quarantine. Third, a 240 billion euro program to support the most affected and weak states. "This emergency plan needs to protect our economy and social sphere", said Centeno. Also, the head of the Eurogroup, consisting of Finance Ministers of 19 EU member states said: "We are going through the worst recession in the last 70 years. And we respond with measures to preserve companies and jobs, as well as to maintain wages."

Meanwhile, the main factor blocking the work of any economy, which is the "coronavirus" epidemic, continues to remain in force. The latest news may have been a little encouraging for traders and investors. There was data that in Australia they found a drug that can kill the COVID-2019 virus within two days, and in Turkey, they invented a vaccine for which the body produces the necessary antibodies. Moreover, according to the latest information, the United States is also actively developing a vaccine against "coronavirus". However, all these drugs and vaccines have not yet been tested on humans. And even if they show their effectiveness, and it may take at least a month to study this indicator, it will take several more months before the drugs can be produced on an industrial scale, so that they are enough for everyone in need. By that time, in 1-2 months, the number of people infected with the "Chinese disease" may be three or four times more than the current almost 1.4 million. The vaccine, of course, is needed in any case, but the quarantine measures should also work. They may even be working now, because according to the latest statements from WHO representatives, the rate of growth in mortality and morbidity in Europe is beginning to slow down. This is good, but it's too early to open the champagne. No one knows whether there will be a "second wave", moreover, the virus can continue to develop at a low rate, continuing to infect more and more people. In this case, sooner or later, the number of infected people will be reduced to an absolute minimum, but by that time, the number of "deaths" can be very high. After all, the most important thing is human sacrifice. There is nothing to say about the economy. If now, when the economy is in quarantine for no more than a month and a half, the current damage and consequences are already compared to the great depression in the United States in the thirties of the last century. The scale of the crisis will be greater than its "mortgage counterpart" of 2008-2009. Thus, the economy will not begin to recover until the end of the quarantine. And the quarantine will not end until the virus stops spreading. And that's a long way off.

Both linear regression channels are directed downward, but, as we have already said, the pair should now consolidate in the area of 1.09-1.10, so the direction of the medium and long-term channels does not matter.

Exchange Rates 08.04.2020 analysis

The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair remains quite high. As of April 8, the average volatility value is 116 points. We believe that the markets continue to return to normal at a slow pace, however, new outbreaks of panic are possible. Today, we expect a further decrease in volatility and price movement between the levels of 1.0792 and 1.1024. The flat observed yesterday has already been completed. Now the pair is aiming for the level of 1.10, but the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator down will indicate the end of the upward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.0864

S2 - 1.0742

S3 - 1.0620

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.0986

R2 - 1.1108

R3 - 1.1230

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair started an upward movement. Thus, traders are now recommended to consider purchases with the goal of the Murray level of "2/8"-1.0986 before the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator down. It is recommended to sell the euro/dollar pair no earlier than the reverse price fixing below the moving average line with the first goal being the volatility level of 1.0792.

*Prezentowana analiza rynku ma charakter informacyjny i nie jest przewodnikiem po transakcji.

Z szacunkiem,
Analityk: Paolo Greco
GK InstaForex © 2007-2020
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