Market Roundup
- Fed's Fischer says not an emphasis within FOMC on June rate liftoff as opposed to Sept
- Fed's Fischer says asset purchase program continues to buoy economy, confident Fed has tools to hike rates, Rate rise seen "sometime this year" (CNBC)
- Fed's Fischer Fed will not be pre-committed to steep or not steep rate hikes after liftoff; will depend on economic shocks
- Fed's Dudley Risk of raising rates too soon higher than waiting longer, inflation projected to stay below Fed's 2% objective for some time
- Fed's Mester cites risks of policy that stays lower for too long, holding rates low for too long may erode investors confidence in the economy
- ECB's Constancio Benefits of QE outweigh possible risks
- BOJ's Nakaso still need to re-anchor Japanese inflation expectations
- Greece set to get green light for EBRD support (Reuters Exclusive)
- Greek PM Tsipras denies Greece will seek third bailout, says we have put on the table our request for a reduction in debt
- Brazil's Levy may reconsider fiscal target on a quarterly basis, expect '15 spending to on roughly same level as 2013
- Brazil unveils payroll, export tax changes to boost savings
- BCCh minutes Chile domestic activity uptick may not last
- Chile jobless rate rises to 6.2 percent copper output surges 13.2 percent in January
- OPEC oil output fell by 350,000 bpd in February, Libya & Iraq decline, Saudi Arabia o/p rose
- German EU-harmonized inflation remains slightly negative in Feb
- US GDP Prelim Q4 2.2%, f/c 2.1%, 2.60%-prev
- US GDP Sales Prelim Q4 2.1%, f/c 1.6%, 1.80%-prev
- US GDP Cons Spending Prelim Q4 4.2%, 4.30%-prev
- US GDP Deflator Prelim Q4 0.1%, f/c 0%, -0.10%-prev
- US Core PCE Prices Prelim Q4 1.1%, f/c 1.1%, 1.10%-prev
- US PCE Prices Prelim Q4 -0.4%, f/c -0.5%, -0.50%-prev
- US Chicago PMI Feb 45.8, f/c 58, 59.40-prev
- US U Mich Sentiment Final Feb 95.4, f/c 94, 93.60-prev
- US U Mich Conditions Final Feb 106.9, f/c 103, 103.10-prev
- US U Mich Expectations Final Feb 88, f/c 87.8, 87.50-prev
- US U Mich 1Yr Inf Final Feb 2.8%, 2.80%-prev
- US U Mich 5-Yr Inf Final Feb 2.7%, 2.70%-prev
- US Pending Homes Index Jan 104.2, 102.5-prev
- US Pending Sales Change MM Jan 1.7%, f/c 2%, -1.50%-prev
- CA Budget Balance, C$ Dec 2.43b, 0.62b-prev
- CA Budget, Year-To-Date, CAD Dec -0.90b, -3.33b-prev
- BR Gross Debt/GDP Ratio Jun 64.4%, 63.40%-prev
- BR Primary Budget Surplus Jan +21.063b, f/c 18.250b, -12.894b-prev
- BR Nominal Budget Balance Jan +3.041b, -60.102b-prev
- BR Net Debt/GDP Ratio Jan 36.6%, f/c 36.8%, 36.70%-prev
- MX Jobless Rate Jan 4.51%, f/c 4.45%, 3.76%-prev
- MX Jobless Rate SA Jan 4.43%, f/c 4.3%, 4.38%-prev
- Global investors lift exposure to stocks as major markets touch record highs
Economic Data Ahead
- (1645 ET/ 2145 GMT) NewZealand Terms of Trade QQ Q4 (consensus -3%, previous -4.4%)
- (1645 ET/ 2145 GMT) NewZealand Terms of Trade - Exp Vol Q4 (consensus 1.5%, previous -0.1%)
- (1645 ET/ 2145 GMT) NewZealand Terms of Trade - Imports Q4 (consensus -0.4%, previous -0.1%)
- (1645 ET/ 2145 GMT) NewZealand Terms of Trade - Exports Q4 (consensus -3.1%, previous -4.5%)
- (1730 ET/ 2230 GMT) Australia AIG Manufacturing Index Feb (previous 49)
- (1730 ET/ 2230 GMT) Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge Feb (previous 0.1%)
- (1900 ET/ 0000 GMT) Australia HIA New Home Sales m/m Jan (previous -0.019)
- (1930 ET/ 0030 GMT) Australia Business Inventories Q4 (consensus 0.1%, previous 0.7%)
- (1900 ET/ 0000 GMT) Australia Gross Company Profits Q4 (consensus 0.3%, previous 0.5%)
- (1900 ET/ 0000 GMT) Australia Company Profits Pre-Tax Q4 (previous 10.2%)
- (1750 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Business Capex (MOF) YY Q4 (previous 5.5%)
- (2035 ET/ 0135 GMT) Japan Manufacturing PMI Feb (previous 51.5)
- (2000 ET/ 0100 GMT) China NBS Non-Mfg PMI Feb (previous 53.7)
- (2000 ET/ 0100 GMT) China NBS Manufacturing PMI Feb (consensus 49.70, previous 49.8)
- (2045 ET/ 0145 GMT) China HSBC Mfg PMI Final Feb (previous 50.1)
Key Events Ahead
FX Recap
EUR/USD: Euro rebounds from 1-month low vs dollar. EUR/USD ending the week around 1.1200. Looks as though the pair will continue to close above 1.1185 (23.6% expansion) to 1.1210 (61.8% retracement), but will retain the approach to 'sell-bounces' in EUR/USD as RSI retains bearish momentum. Updated forecasts along with the forward-guidance for monetary policy will be largely in focus as the ECB prepares to launch its QE program.
USD/JPY: Technical profile looks constructive. Weekly gain is minimal as the pair has advanced just 65 pips from its weekly opening of 119.00. USD/JPY gained momentum and climbed over half-a-cent over the last hours to hit a 3-day high. The dollar strengthened following a lackluster US GDP revision. The pair is currently trading at 119.75, recording a 0.29% gain on the day and still on track for its second weekly rise in a row. Support seen at 118.30/118.00, resistance at 119.82/120.50.
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar was firmer against the greenback on Friday, tracking moderate gains in crude prices. USD/CAD is up in the 1.25 handle with resistance at 1.2515 with a good run of US data that has the greenback in positive territory. The pair is currently trading at 1.2507 with a high of 1.2523 and a low of 1.2447. Order boards remain thin, bid side rebuilding.
EUR/JPY: EUR/JPY rose during the American session boosted by a decline of the yen across the board. Pair consolidates weekly losses around 134.00. Printed a daily high at 134.26 and spent the last hours hovering around 134.00, 150 pips below the level it had a week ago. EUR remains under pressure, limited EUR/JPY and pushed it toward the key short term support area located between 133.50 - 133.70.
GBP/USD: Sterling steadied on Friday after a rollercoaster week. GBP/USD is closing the session towards the mid point of the 1.54 handle, unable to make further advances. The pair is currently trading at 1.5433 with a high of 1.5460 and a low of 1.538. Bears need a break of 20 dma at 1.5333 to take control. Pair will then retarget 1.5197 en route to 1.4953 the January low.
