Market Roundup
- United States Durable Goods Mar 4%, forecast 0.6%, previous -1.4%
- United States Non-def Ex-Air Mar -0.5%, forecast 0.3%, previous -2.2%, def spending skews headline number
- Mexico Retail Sales YY Feb 5.6%, forecast 4.2%, previous 4.7%, rates on hold unless inflation rises
- United States Mar building permits revised number mm increase to 1.042 mln vs previous 1.039 mln
- United States Mar building permits revised chg mm increase to -5.4 % vs previous -5.7 %
- Argentina Feb economic activity yy increase to +1.4 % (forecast 0.5 %) vs previous 0.0 %
- Argentina Mar industrial output nsa increase to -1.6 % (forecast -1.5 %) vs previous -2.2 %
- Colombia's central bank holds key lending rate at 4.5 pct, as expected
- Greece's Varoufakis agreement with lenders will be difficult but will happen, there is no other choice; Greece needs a deal & is ready to compromise
- Germany'S Merkel says we will do everything to ensure that Greece stays in the Euro zone
- European governments have largely failed to reform (EU document)
- Bank of Canada's Poloz Oil price shock soon to be positive overall for Canada
- Reuters Poll Brazil's CB to hike rates 50bps next week to 13.25% (42/48 economists)
Economic Data Ahead
Key Events Ahead
- Sat Apr 25 (1130 ET/ 1530 GMT) German Bundesbank Pres Weidmann & German FinMin Schaeuble to participate in a press conference
FX Recap
USD/CAD: Canadian dollar is now rapidly depreciating vs. its American counterpart on Friday, lifting USD/CAD to session highs near 1.2180. Canadian dollar shed further ground following Poloz speech. USD dynamics and the crude oil performance will remain the main drivers for the CAD into the next week. GDP figures for the month of February, due on Thursday will also be watched. Currently the pair is up 0.21% at 1.2170. Immediate resistance is at 1.2208 (low Apr 22) followed by 1.2250 (high Apr 23) and then 1.2328 (high Apr 16). Supports on the downside are at 1.2135 (low Apr 23), 1.2100 (psychological level) and finally 1.2088 (low Apr 17). Option expiries Monday 27th: 1.20 (700M),1.2035-50 (700M), 1.2165 (804M), 1.22 (807M)
USD/JPY: Greenback is losing face in to the closing hours of the week's session. USD/JPY bears in charge ahead of BoJ next week. The pair has lost the 119 handle in a bearish market, and is currently trading at the day's low of 118.84 after having made a high of 119.67. Supports is seen at 118.30 (March 26 low), while resistances are at 120.14 and 120.44. Option expiries Monday 27th: 119.00 (738M), 120.00 (1.8BLN)
EUR/USD: Renewed optimism regarding a potential EU-Greece deal pre-Eurogroup meeting gave extra legs to the pair. Markets shrugged off poor results from the preliminary manufacturing and services PMIs as well as mixed IFO numbers. Lack of progress in the Eurogroup meeting prevented EUR-bulls to advance beyond the key barrier at 1.0900. Euro is above 1.0800 vs USD, on track to close the second consecutive week with gains. Another test of the 1.0900 handle and the critical resistance band at 1.1040/60 in the pipeline in the upcoming sessions. Option expiries Monday 27th: 1.0800 (521M), 1.0900 (1.1BLN)
EUR/GBP is consolidating lower after the cross was punished from above the 0.72 handle. EUR/GBP rally ran in to strong offers just shy of the 0.7200 round figure at the cloud base at 0.7194. The pair is currently trading at 0.7160 with a high of 0.7212 and low of 0.7147. 0.7015 (March low) and 0.7000 (psychological level) are key supports.
