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Market Roundup

  • USD/JPY -1.1%, EUR/USD +0.6%, GBP/USD +0.47%
     
  • DXY -0.56%, DAX -0.5%, Brent +1.0%, Iron +1.67%, Gold +1.16%
     
  • Germany 2016 GDP 1.9% vs 1.7% previous, 1.8% expected
     
  • EZ Nov Industrial Production 3.2% y/y vs revised +0.8% previous, 1.6% expected
     
  • Italy Nov Industrial Production 3.2% y/y vs 1.3% previous, 2.0% expected
     
  • Sweden Dec Core CPI +1.9% vs +1.6% previous, 1.8% expected
     
  • Riksbank minutes Dec meet: more of a dovish line but SEK rallies
     
  • NAB marketing 7-year samurais, Daiwa-SMBC Nikko leads – IFR
     
  • China NDRC approves $26.5 bln fixed-asset investment in December – Reuters
     
  • China Commerce Min – Challenging, complicated trade outlook for ’17 –Reuters
     
  • New Zealand Dec ANZ commodity price index +0.7% m/m,+16.5% y/y, dairy-driven rise

Economic Data Ahead

  • (0830 ET/1330 GMT) The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits is likely to have increased by 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 255,000 for the week ended Jan. 7 while continuing claims for the week ended Dec. 30 is expected to decline to 2.118 m from 2.112 m.
     
  • (0830 ET/1330 GMT) The U.S. Labor Department publishes import and export prices index for the month of December. The import prices are likely to have gained 0.7 percent after slumping 0.3 percent in November, while exports are expected to have edged up 0.1 percent after falling 0.1 percent in the prior month.
     
  • (0830 ET/1330 GMT) The Statistics Canada is likely to report that New Housing Price Index (NHPI) rose 0.2 percent in November after rising 0.4 percent in October.
     
  • (1030 ET/1530 GMT) The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports its Natural Gas Storage for the week ending January 6.
     
  • (1400 ET/1900 GMT) The U.S. government reports its monthly budget statement for the month of December. The government's budget deficit narrowed to $25 billion from $137 billion in the previous month.
     
  • (1645 ET/2145 GMT) The Statistics New Zealand will release Electronic Card Retail Sales figures for the month of December. The indicator posted a decline of 0.1 percent in the previous month. 
     
  • (1850 ET/2350 GMT) Japan's Ministry of Finance will report foreign bond investment for the week ending December 30.
  • (1850 ET/2350 GMT) Japan's Ministry of Finance reports foreign investment in domestic stocks for the week ending December 30.
     

Key Events Ahead

  • (0830 ET/1330 GMT) Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker is scheduled to speak on the economic outlook before the Main Line Chamber of Commerce Annual Meeting, in Malvern, Pennsylvania. 
     
  • (0845 ET/1345 GMT) Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks on current economic conditions and monetary policy before a panel at the American Council of Life Insurers Executive Roundtable, in Naples, Florida.
     
  • (0945 ET/1445 GMT) FedTrade operation 30-year Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac (max $2.350 bln
     
  • (1145 ET/1645 GMT) FedTrade operation 30-year Ginnie Mae (max $1.300 bln
     
  • (1230 ET/1730 GMT) Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart will speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy before the Naples Chamber of Commerce, in Naples.
     
  • (1315 ET/1815 GMT) Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard gives a presentation on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Forecasters Club of New York, in New York.
     
  • (1345 ET/1845 GMT) Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will address the Dallas Chamber of Commerce at its annual meeting.
     
  • (1900 ET/0000 GMT) Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen will speak about the mission and responsibilities of the Federal Reserve System at a town hall meeting.
     

FX Beat

DXY: The dollar slumped versus its major peers as President-elect Donald Trump's press briefing failed to provide clarity on his future fiscal policies. The greenback against a basket of currencies traded 0.7 percent down at 101.04, having hit a low of 100.81 earlier in the session, its lowest since Dec. 14. FxWirePro's Hourly Dollar Strength Index stood at -81.56 (Slightly Bearish) by 1100 GMT.

EUR/USD: The euro rose to a fresh 4-week high amid broad-based U.S. dollar weakness triggered by President-elect Donald Trump’s press conference. Moreover, upbeat German Q4 GDP data and better-than-expected Eurozone's industrial production figures kept the bid tone around the major intact. The European currency trades 0.4 percent higher at 1.0623, hovering towards a peak of 1.0664 hit earlier in the session, its highest since Dec 14. FxWirePro's Hourly Euro Strength Index stood at -25.13 (Neutral) by 1000 GMT. Any break above 1.0670 (61.8% retracement of 1.08735 and 1.03422) will take the pair to next level till 1.0745/1.0870. It should break below 1.0450 for further weakness, while the minor support is around 1.0580/1.0550.

USD/JPY: The dollar shed over 1 percent to hit a fresh 1-month low below the 114.00 handle, as a renewed bout of risk aversion fueled by Trump's presser weighed on market sentiment. However, the major is seen making a minor recovery on the back of easing risk-off sentiment as renewed buying across the commodities’ sector and a rebound seen in the U.S. treasury yields dented the demand for the safe-haven yen. The major trades 0.9 percent lower at 114.30, having hit a low of 113.75 earlier in the day, its lowest since Dec. 8. FxWirePro's Hourly Yen Strength Index stood at 71.74 (Bullish) by 1000 GMT. The major resistance is around 115.40 (30- day EMA) and any break above will take the pair till 116.75 (61.8% retracement of 118.61 and 113.75)/117.53 (Jan 9 High)/118. On the lower side, minor support is around 113.10 (Dec 12 Low) and any break below targets 112.85/112.

GBP/USD: Sterling rose above the 1.2300 handle, as the dollar weakened after President-elect Donald Trump's failed to provide details on spending plans in his first news conference since his election victory. The major hit 3-month lows on Wednesday as political uncertainties weighed on the pound, however, it rallied to a high of 1.2316 earlier in the day, its strongest since Jan. 6. Sterling trades 0.4 percent up at 1.2260, pulling further away from a low of 1.2037 hit in the previous session, its lowest since Oct. 7. FxWirePro's Hourly Sterling Strength Index stood at -128.12 (Highly Bearish) by 1000 GMT. The upside remains capped by 1.2320 and any break above will take the pair till 1.2365/1.2435. Any close above 1.2450 will take the pair to next level till 1.2510/1.2550 (61.8% retracement of 1.27747 and 1.22005). On the lower side, short term support stands at 1.2000 and any break below will drag the pair down till 1.19048 Brexit low. Against the euro, the pound trades flat at 86.68 pence, having touched a low of 87.63 on Tuesday, its weakest since Nov. 10.

USD/CHF: The Swiss franc rose to a 2-week high, as the dollar eased across the board after Trump's presser failed to offer details on his plans to strengthen fiscal spending and cut taxes. The dollar trades 0.6 percent down at 1.0080, having touched a low of 1.0060, its lowest since Dec. 30. FxWirePro's Hourly Swiss Franc Strength Index stood at 17.05 (Neutral) by 1000 GMT. Any break below 1.0050 level will drag the pair down till 1/0.9909/0.9840 (200- day MA). On the higher side, a break above 1.010 (60-day EMA) will take it to next level till 1.0145/1.0200/1.0250 (Jan 11 High).

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar rallied to a fresh 4-week high above the 0.7500 handle, extending gains for the fourth consecutive session, as lack of stimulus plans from President-elect Donald Trump triggered broad-based U.S. dollar selling. Moreover, positive sentiment surrounding commodity prices strengthened the bid tone around the major. The Aussie trades 0.8 percent up at 0.7498, having hit an early high of 0.7515, it’s highest since Dec. 14. FxWirePro's Hourly Aussie Strength Index stood at 81.86 (Slightly Bullish) by 1100 GMT. On the higher side, any close above 0.7500 (200- day MA) will take the pair to next level till 0.7545 (61.8% retracement of 0.7778 and 0.71599)/0.7600. The minor support is around 0.7400 (60-day EMA) and a break below will drag the pair till 0.7330 (30- day EMA)/0.72929 (61.8% retracement of 0.71599 and 0.75153.

NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar advanced to a fresh 4-week high above the 0.7100 handle, as the U.S. dollar was sold across the board, in wake of disappointment from Trump's first news conference.  The Kiwi trades 0.8 percent up at 0.7114, having hit a high of 0.7133 earlier in the day, it’s strongest since Dec. 15. FxWirePro's Hourly Kiwi Strength Index was at 44.42 (Neutral) by 1100 GMT. Immediate resistance is located at 0.7150, a break above could take it till 0.7200. On the downside, support is seen at 0.7024 (5-DMA), a break below could drag it lower 0.7000.

Equities Recap

European shares declined in early trade, dragged lower by healthcare stocks after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump aimed pharmaceuticals' drug pricing in a press briefing.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index decreased 0.5 percent to 363.14 points, while the FTSEurofirst 300 index tumbled 0.5 percent to 1,436.05 points.

Britain's FTSE 100 trades 0.3 percent down at 7,270.56 points, while mid-cap FTSE 250 eased 0.6 percent at 18,284.58 points.

Germany's DAX shed 0.6 percent at 11,576.87 points; France's CAC 40 trades 0.4 percent lower at 4,865.59 points.

Tokyo's Nikkei dropped 1.19 percent to 19,134.70 points, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.08 percent to 5,767.00 points and South Korea's KOSPI rose 0.58 percent to 2,087.14 points.

Shanghai composite index tumbled 0.6 percent at 3,119.29 points, while CSI300 index declined 0.5 percent at 3,317.62 points. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng shed 0.5 percent at 22,829.02 points.

Commodities Recap

Crude oil prices rose, extending previous session gains, helped by signs that OPEC was initiating to cut output and expectations of robust demand growth in China, however, increasing U.S. crude inventories limited upside. International benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.42 percent higher at $55.45 per barrel by 0949 GMT, having touched a low of $53.57 on Wednesday, its lowest since Dec. 15. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.1 percent at $52.41 a barrel, after falling as low as $50.69 in the previous session.

Gold prices rose more than 1 percent to hit a 7-week high, strengthened by a weaker greenback after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump failed to provide clarity on future fiscal policies. Spot gold was up 1.1 percent at $1,204.83 per ounce, after touching a high of $1,206.83, its best since Nov. 23. U.S. gold futures rose 0.1 percent to $1,197.80 per ounce.

Treasuries Recap

The U.S. Treasuries were pushed higher in the wake of President-elect Trump's first press conference since the November election. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 4 basis points to 2.32 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yield moved 4 basis points higher to 2.92 percent while the yield on short-term 2-year note jumped around 2 basis points to 1.16 percent.

The UK gilts trended higher ahead of the 10-year auction scheduled later in the day. Also, investors are now looking forward to a host of speeches from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members post market hours. The yield on the benchmark 10-year gilts, fell 4-1/2 basis points to 1.30 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yield also plunged 3-1/2 basis points to 1.96 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year slid 1/2 basis point to 0.17 percent.

The German bund yields slumped after uncertainty hovered around United States’ fiscal policies post the speech of the President-elect Donald Trump at his first news conference on Wednesday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year bonds, fell 2-1/2 basis points to 0.22 percent, the long-term 30-year bond yield also plunged 4 basis points to 0.98 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year bond barely slid 1 basis point to -0.71 percent.

The yields on 10-year Japanese government bonds fell, following softness in benchmark equity index, which plunged to near 2-week low, following lack of clarity by the United States President-elect Donald Trump in his news conference held on Wednesday. The benchmark 10-year bond yield, fell 1/2 basis point to 0.05 percent, the long-term 30-year bond yields dipped over 1 basis point to 0.75 percent while the yield on short-term 2-year note rose 2 basis points to -0.22 percent.

The New Zealand 10-year bond yields plunged to almost 1-1/2 month low, while the medium-term 5-year bond yields hit lowest in over five weeks, following a recovery in the global debt market. In intraday trading, the yield on the benchmark 10-year bond, cracked 10 basis points to 3.12 percent, the yield on 7-year note plunged nearly 7 basis points to 2.79 percent and the yield on the short-term 2-year note slid 4-1/2 basis points to 2.20 percent.

The Australian 10-year bond yields slumped to over 6-week low, tracking firmness in U.S. Treasuries amid a lack of clarity by the United States President-elect Donald Trump in his press conference on Wednesday. In intraday trading, the 10-yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, fell more than 6 basis points to 2.68 percent, the yield on 15-year note plunged 10 basis points to 3.11 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year moved down 5 basis points to 1.83 percent.