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Exchange Rates 16.08.2019 analysis

As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair continues the process of falling and closed below the correction level of 100.0% (1.1107). As a result, on August 16, the fall of quotations can be continued in the direction of the next correction level of 127.2% (1.1025). The indicators for the euro/dollar pair do not have emerging divergences today. Economic reports came out yesterday only in Britain and America, so the traders of the euro/dollar pair remained on a dry ration. Several new posts by Donald Trump about the trade war with China, in particular, the words that "the war will be short", did not particularly interest the forex market. The main factor in the growth of the dollar and the fall of the euro remains a bias in the strength of monetary policy in favor of the Fed. Recent days and weeks have shown that the trade war harms the economy of the States and China, the stock markets of both countries often close in the red, June – was a month of disappointing statistics in the United States. And even with all these problems, the US currency has not made the position of the euro. Because in the European Union, things are no better than in America but much worse. Industrial production is in the red, inflation is at the level of 1.1% - 1.3% and this is with the regular fall of the euro, which has a positive effect on any inflation. If the euro did not become cheaper, inflation was in the region of 0.7% - 1.0%. At the same time, the ECB is going to reduce rates and revive the program of quantitative easing.

The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of May 23, 2019, and June 25, 2019.

Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair has completed the closing under the correction level of 100.0% (1.1107). I recommend continuing selling the euro/dollar pair with the target of 1.1025, with the stop-loss order above the level of 1.1107. I recommend buying the pair with the target of 1.1180 and stop-loss order under the level of 1.1107 if the closing is performed above the correction level of 100.0%.


Exchange Rates 16.08.2019 analysis

The confrontation between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn is gaining momentum. Recently, the leader of the Labor Party, Mr. Corbyn, said that the current government has no authority to carry out Brexit "No Deal" in principle, and even more so without the approval of Parliament. I have repeatedly raised this question: how is Boris Johnson going to implement Brexit without the support of Parliament and without suspending its work? Jeremy Corbyn is going to take a vote of confidence in Mr. Johnson and remove him from his post as prime minister. Corbyn himself is going to take his place, but only for a limited period, which is enough to prevent uncontrolled Brexit. Also, if supported by Parliament, Jeremy Corbyn intends to initiate a second referendum that will be called to "hear" the will of every British citizen on the question to how should the country leave the EU and whether it should at all? As we all see, 80 days before the next Brexit date, a political discussion in the UK is not how the country will live outside the EU, but what will Brexit be like. How to dismiss the Prime Minister? How to hold a second referendum. Well, the GBP/USD pair is constantly updating its lows. The pound sterling managed to grow slightly yesterday, thanks to a strong economic report on retail sales. However, there is a bearish divergence in the CCI indicator today, which allows traders to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the correction level of 161.8% (1.1853).

The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of January 3, 2019, and March 13, 2019.


Exchange Rates 16.08.2019 analysis

As seen on the hourly chart, the pound/dollar pair is trading above the Fibo level of 261.8%. However, for the analysis and forecast of the movement, it is better to consider a 4-hour chart, as it shows the picture more clearly.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of June 18, 2019, and June 25, 2019.

Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair may resume the process of falling. Thus, I recommend selling the pair with the target of 1.1853, with the stop-loss level above the bearish divergence peak. I recommend buying the pair with the target of 1.2437 and with the stop-loss order below the level of 127.2%(4-hour chart) if the closing is performed above the level of 1.2180.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Performed by Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019
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