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29.07.202123:10 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on July 30. Analysis of Thursday. Getting ready for Friday

Analysis of previous deals:

30M chart of the EUR/USD pair

Exchange Rates 29.07.2021 analysis

The EUR/USD pair moved according to macroeconomic reports and the fundamental background of the last day on Thursday. However, it cannot be said that the movement in connection with the publication of an important report on US GDP and all data received from the Federal Reserve has intensified. Yesterday evening, as expected, the pair increased its own volatility for several hours, but the period of activity ended very quickly. The results of the Fed meeting were as neutral as possible. From the important novice traders, you need to know that the Fed has not made a single important statement regarding the quantitative stimulus program, although the markets were expecting such. There was also not a single hint of rate hikes or any other monetary tightening. And since there were no changes, and they were not announced while the markets were waiting for them, the US dollar quite rightly came under pressure. However, the Fed, in principle, did not give any reason to expect such rhetoric, so the market's reaction was still restrained. The US GDP for the second quarter was published today, which turned out to be much worse than forecasted. Therefore, the dollar continued to fall today, although it could have been much stronger than what we eventually saw. Volatility was again very low.

5M chart of the EUR/USD pair

Exchange Rates 29.07.2021 analysis

Several trading signals were generated on the 5-minute timeframe, which should have been worked out. In principle, the movement was comfortable, although not strong. The first buy signal was formed early in the morning when the price bounced from the level of 1.1851. The signal turned out to be quite strong, and the price subsequently reached the closest level of 1.1880. A rebound from this level became a sell signal and a signal to close long positions at a profit of about 17 points. However, the sell signal turned out to be false, as the price closed above the level of 1.1880 a little later. Thus, on the second trade, a loss of 9 points was received. The third buy signal in the form of a breakthrough of the level of 1.1880 turned out to be very fuzzy, and right at the time of its formation, a report on US GDP was published. Thus, it was impossible to predict the market reaction to this report, so this signal should be ignored. The fourth buy signal in the form of a rebound from the level of 1.1880 should also be ignored, since by that time two false signals had already formed near the level of 1.1880. The fifth buy signal is the same. Thus, the day ended for novice traders with minimal profits.

Trading tips for Friday:

The price finally left the horizontal channel and formed a kind of trend on the 30-minute timeframe. A rising trend line has appeared, but its slope is minimal. Therefore, it is hardly worth expecting that the price will often fall to it in order to rebound. In general, the EUR/USD pair remains at a low volatility, which greatly complicates the trading process. Thus, formally, we can now consider a buy signal from the MACD indicator, which must first be discharged to the zero level. But this should be done as carefully as possible. On the 5-minute timeframe, it is recommended to trade from the levels 1.1851, 1.1880, 1.1895, 1.1912, 1.1921. Take Profit, as before, is set at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss - to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 15-20 points. At the 5M TF, the target can be the nearest level if it is not too close or too far away. If located - then you should act according to the situation. On Friday, the European Union will publish reports on inflation, unemployment and GDP. But despite the "loud sign" of these reports, they may well be ignored by the market. Thus, tomorrow morning you need to be on the lookout, but be prepared that there will be no reaction. After lunch, only minor reports will be published in America, which are much less likely to resonate with traders.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Paolo Greco,
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