We can absolutely calmly say that the single European currency has actually stood still for several days in a row. Of course it gradually decreased for nearly the entirety of Friday, and it completely won back all these losses closer to the end of the US session. But the scale of these movements, at best, can be called extremely modest. Something in the region of thirty points one way and the other. Which, in general, is not surprising, since the macroeconomic calendar was completely empty on Friday. So there was simply nothing for investors to grab onto.
Today the situation is somewhat different, as data on retail sales will be published in Europe, which should show zero growth. More precisely, they can show no change in annual terms. And oddly enough, this can be perceived as an extremely positive factor, since the European industry has been declining for twenty-five consecutive months. That is, it has been decreasing since November 2018. The data for December last year will be published today. In general, despite the depressing state of affairs in the European industry, the fact that the recession has stopped already seems like incredible growth, which will contribute to the euro's appreciation.
Industrial production (Europe):
After a short pullback from the resistance point of 1.2150, the EURUSD pair returned to the area of last week's high, while showing interest in growth.
The market dynamics is below average, while local jumps are slipping in the market, which indicates that speculators are on it.
Based on the quote's current location, it is clear that market participants are already practically touching the resistance level of 1.2150, where, given the recent pullback, a regrouping of trading forces could have occurred, which will positively affect the volume of long positions.
Considering the trading chart in general terms, the daily period, you can see that the quote follows in the structure of the corrective move from the high of the medium-term trend of 1.2349, where, taking into account the recovery, we are about halfway from the high of the trend.
We can assume that the recovery process relative to the corrective move may continue to be present in the market, but in order to do so, the quote needs to stay above 1.2155, which will open the way in the direction of 1.2190, this is the first point of a possible move.
In case the price does not surpass the 1.2155 level on a four-hour period, then a fluctuation along the 1.2110/1.2160 range is not excluded.
From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments signal a buy, since the quote can be found in the 1.2150 region.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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