2023.12.2114:23:00UTC+00U.S. Leading Economic Index Decreases In Line With Estimates In November

With stock prices making virtually the only positive contribution, the Conference Board released a report on Thursday showing a continued decrease by its reading on leading U.S. economic indicators in the month of November.

The Conference Board said its leading economic index slid by 0.5 percent in November after slumping by a downwardly revised 1.0 percent in October.

Economists had expected the leading economic index to fall by 0.5 percent compared to the 0.8 percent decrease originally reported for the previous month.

"Housing and labor market indicators weakened in November, reflecting warning areas for the economy," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

She added, "The Leading Credit Index and manufacturing new orders were essentially unchanged, pointing to a lack of economic growth momentum in the near term."

Meanwhile, the Conference Board said its coincident economic index rose by 0.2 percent in November after coming in unchanged in October.

All four components of the index were positive in November, with personal income less transfer payments being the strongest contributor, the Conference Board said.

The report said the lagging economic index also increased by 0.5 percent in November after rising by 0.3 percent in October.

"Despite the economy's ongoing resilience-as revealed by the US CEI-and December's improvement in consumer confidence, the US LEI suggests a downshift of economic activity ahead," said Zabinska-La Monica. "As a result, The Conference Board forecasts a short and shallow recession in the first half of 2024."