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The European currency continued to decline against the US dollar, as many traders are concerned about the fact that the Italian government has not yet provided a draft budget with a target deficit that suits the European Commission. If the budget deficit for 2019 in Italy does not change, the pressure on the European currency will most likely continue. The mood of investors speaks for themselves since the yield of Italian government bonds is steadily approaching 4%.

The speech of the European Central Bank President, Mario Draghi, also put pressure on the euro. Despite the fact that Draghi reiterated that the latest data points continued to a large-scale economic growth in the Eurozone and therefore, the purchase of assets under the quantitative easing program will end in December. It should be noted that the decision to raise interest rates was postponed to the end the summer of 2019.

As stated by Draghi, interest rates will remain at current levels until the end of the summer of 2019, whereas previously a rate increase was expected in early summer.

According to the President of the ECB, the high risks associated with protectionism, the instability of emerging markets and market volatility may have an impact on future decisions of the Central Bank.

Basic data

Yesterday, a report was released stating the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States decreased. According to the US Department of Labor, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits declined by 1,000 to 214,000 from October 28 to November 3. Economists expected the number of initial claims to be 210,000, indicating a shortage of skilled workers.

Yesterday, the US Federal Reserve left short-term interest rates unchanged. As for the assessment of the economy, it was positive, indicating a high likelihood of further rate increases following the next meeting.

According to the data, the Fed left the range of interest rates on federal funds unchanged between 2.00% and 2.25%. This decision was made by the Fed's Open Market Operations Committee with a vote of 9 to 0.

Exchange Rates 09.11.2018 analysis

The Fed said that the growth of companies' investments slowed down after a rapid pace earlier this year, while the unemployment rate fell. Good indicators of economic activity, which show strong growth rates, will support the American economy, as well as good household spending, which will continue to grow. As for inflation, the Fed expects it to remain around 2% since inflation expectations have almost not changed.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Performed by Eder Anderson,
Analytical expert
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