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Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of EUR/USD on August 16th. Forecast according to the "Regression Channels". Trump is not afraid of a trade war, or pretends not to be afraid
time 16.08.2019 08:12 AM
time Relevance up to, 17.08.2019 06:56 AM

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – sideways.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -168.4492

On August 16, the EUR/USD pair calmly continues its downward movement in the direction of two-year lows. The last trading day of the week will be interesting to traders only thanks to data from overseas about the state of the construction sector and the consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan. In the European Union, no publication is planned for today. But even these two reports are not important, so there may be no reaction to the foreign exchange market. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has taken the next step in a trade battle with China. Earlier, the US President postponed the introduction of new 300-billion duties on Chinese imports from September 1 to December 15, citing the fact that he does not want to spoil the Christmas holidays to American citizens, for whom goods from China would rise in price. It seems to be a concern for his people, but many experts believe that this is a "step back" in the confrontation with Xi Jinping. Trump does not have so many trump cards in his hands, but Beijing has many more of them. Moreover, Beijing does not just throw them away, although it could have started selling US government securities long ago, or refuse to sell rare earth metals to the States. But China is waiting for Trump to lose the presidential election and agree with the next president. And Trump can only say that a trade war with China will not lead to a recession of the US economy. Moreover, Trump believes that the Chinese economy is getting weaker day by day, thanks to his duties. Based on this, "the trade war will be short," said Donald Trump. Well, the US dollar continues to rise against the European currency as if nothing had happened, as we do not receive any positive news from the European Union. A trade war does not have a strong impact on the euro/dollar.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1047

S2 – 1.0986

S3 – 1.0925

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1108

R2 – 1.1169

R3 – 1.1230

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair continues to move down. Thus, it is recommended to continue to remain bears in the forex market and sell the euro with a target of 1.1047. A turn of the Heiken Ashi indicator upwards will indicate a correction turn. There are no technical reasons to buy the euro currency now.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2022
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