The euro regained all the positions that it lost after the decision of the European Central Bank to return to the asset repurchase program. During the press conference of the President of the ECB, he directly pointed out that all the blame for the slowdown in global economic growth lies with the United States and the trade war waged by the White House administration with China and other countries.
During a press conference, Mario Draghi said that mitigation measures are a response to low inflation and a weak economy, which in the future will provide a significant incentive for growth in the eurozone.
Recent data indicate moderate GDP growth in the 3rd quarter of this year. Meanwhile, the growth forecast for 2019 was reduced to 1.1% from 1.2%, and for 2020 was revised to 1.2% from 1.4%
Draghi also noted that the balance of risks for the economic prospects of the eurozone is shifted in the negative direction as trade conflicts and geopolitical uncertainty put pressure on economic growth. Therefore, the eurozone economy slowed down more than expected.
As for inflation, the forecast in 2019 was reduced to 1.2% from 1.3%, and in 2020 to 1.0% from 1.4%.
Data on rising consumer prices in the United States was unlikely to please the Federal Reserve only if it did not seriously think about lowering interest rates next week. If so, then yesterday's report fits well with the committee's plans as low inflation maintains a wide range for manipulating interest rates.
According to the report, the growth of the consumer price index in the US remained very low in August due to lower energy prices. Thus, the Consumer price index (CPI) grew by only 0.1% compared with the previous month, coinciding with the forecast of economists. Compared to the same period of 2018, annualized inflation rose by 1.7%.
As for core inflation, excluding volatile categories, prices rose by 0.3% compared with July. The base index grew by 2.4% compared to August 2018.
The US budget deficit continues to grow, and no one sees the problem. So, in the first 11 months of the fiscal year, the deficit exceeded $1 trillion. According to the US Treasury Department, the overall budget deficit grew to 1.07 trillion and GDP amounted to 4.4%.
Between October and August, the budget deficit increased by 10%. Government spending grew by 7% and tax revenue increased by only 3%.
At the same time, the US presidential administration expects a 3.2% increase this year, which predicts a recession in US economic growth in the 3rd quarter of this year. In total for the year GDP growth is expected at 2.2% per annum. In 2020, growth will slow to 1.7% and only accelerate to 1.9% in 2021.
As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, yesterday's powerful return of the bulls to the market once again indicates the manipulations of large players that are constantly happening. At the moment, the bulls will seek to break through the resistance of 1.1085 and get to new local highs in the area of 1.1120 and 1.1150. If the pressure on risky assets returns in the afternoon, (which can happen after the release of the report on US retail sales), it is best to consider long positions on updating the low of 1.1020, which was a big support during this week.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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