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16.01.202211:54 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Bitcoin collapse: Kazakhstan, China, Turkey, and the Fed.

Exchange Rates 16.01.2022 analysis

The technical picture of bitcoin on the 24-hour timeframe is even more eloquent. The price fell to the support level of $ 40,746 and bounced off it. It has risen to the resistance level of $ 43,852 and has bounced off it at the moment. Thus, we can even talk about the formation of a side channel. In general, the picture looks like this. The cryptocurrency has gained a foothold below the ascending trend line, so the downward trend remains at this time. The bitcoin exchange rate is below all the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, so there is no reason to expect the end of the "bearish" trend at this time. Now we are not even talking about a correction, since the cryptocurrency managed to move away from the local minimum by only $ 3,600. What is $ 3,600 for Bitcoin? The daily volatility is far from the most volatile day. At the same time, it is still necessary to adjust, since the total drop in bitcoin in recent months is already $ 30,000, which is about 40% of its last maximum value. However, if we can say with currency pairs that a correction will happen, then in the case of bitcoin, the market is much more "thin" and susceptible to any shocks. For example, if mining and operations with digital assets are banned in China, bitcoin drops by 20-30% in value. Can you imagine anything like this in the foreign exchange market?

Bitcoin is mired in problems.

In Turkey, meanwhile, the government is going to seriously tighten the regulation and taxation of cryptocurrencies. This is due to the strong growth in the number of cryptocurrency transactions. The Turks faced not just inflation, but a strong drop in the lira in the foreign exchange market, so for them cryptocurrencies are not only a salvation from the depreciation of capital from inflation. In China, cryptocurrencies want to completely ban and eliminate the entire sector. According to various sources, illegal mining continues in China, which accounts for up to 20% in total. This is a lot, considering that mining is prohibited in the country. Kazakhstan still remains a source of risk for "bitcoin". At the beginning of the year, there were mass riots in the country on a political basis, so the authorities had to turn off the Internet, which also affected the hashrate of the network since Kazakhstan is one of the leaders in the world in terms of mining facilities located on the territory. And, of course, the Fed, which is going to raise the key rate three or four times this year, and also start unloading its balance sheet, which means in practice selling bonds and withdrawing money from the economy.

Exchange Rates 16.01.2022 analysis

On the 24-hour timeframe, the quotes of the "bitcoin" are fixed below the ascending trend line, so the "bullish" trend is broken. At the moment, the quotes have fallen to the level of $ 40,746, so overcoming this level will open the way to the level of $ 31,106 - the lows of 2021. Please note that bitcoin has been falling for 2 months and so far this fall is almost recoilless and very strong. This clearly suggests that investors are getting rid of coins, and not increasing purchases in any way.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2022
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