Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. Analysis for December 1. The dollar has declined and is threatening to break the wave pattern again.
time 01.12.2022 04:30 PM
time Relevance up to, 02.12.2022 04:29 PM

This image is no longer relevant

Although it still looks very convincing, the wave marking on the 4-hour chart for the euro/dollar instrument needs to be adjusted. The upward portion of the trend has corrected itself. We have obtained a complex correction structure of a-b-c-d-e waves. The peak of wave e exceeds the peak of wave C, so if the wave markings are accurate, construction on this structure may be nearly finished or already finished. In this instance, it is anticipated that we will construct at least three waves downward, but if the most recent phase of the trend is corrective, the subsequent phase will probably be impulsive. Therefore, I am preparing for a new, significant decline in the instrument. The market will be ready to sell when a new attempt to breach the 1.0359 level, which corresponds to 261.8% Fibonacci, is successful. However, the retraction of quotes from the reached lows this week suggests that the entire wave e may end up longer and that the instrument's most recent decline is not the first wave of a new descending section. However, the alleged wave 2 or b might still exist because it only punctured the wave e's peak. Because there isn't an increase in demand for US currency, the wave pattern is generally starting to become muddled.

Powell received no attention from the market at all.

The euro/dollar instrument increased by 60 and 70 basis points on Thursday and yesterday, respectively. Thus, a more complex and extended form of wave e is becoming more and more likely. Unfortunately, given the current course of events, it is possible to repeat this process multiple times for the entire upward section of the trend. Over the past two years, the downward section has repeatedly taken on a longer form than was anticipated, and upward corrective waves have become extremely rare. Things are going in the opposite direction right now. Demand for the dollar may decline even on days when it is not in danger.

There was no trouble yesterday. Inflation in Europe dropped to 10%, while third-quarter GDP growth in the United States was 2.9%. Excellent conditions for the US currency to increase in value. Instead, we noticed a new rise in quotes because the market perceived Fed President Jerome Powell's speech as slightly more "dovish" than before. This occurred in the evening. Since the main theses have stayed the same for several weeks or months, I don't think so either. Other FOMC members also express them in addition to Powell. However, the market was once more selling and wanted to. It's getting more difficult to continue to believe that the anticipated downward wave or set of waves will be built. Only the manufacturing sector business activity index has been made public in the European Union, and an equivalent index has yet to be made public in America. The growth of the instrument can continue if tomorrow's payrolls are within market expectations by a significant margin.

This image is no longer relevant

Conclusions in general

The upward trend section's construction is complete and has increased complexity to five waves (or is nearing completion). As a result, I suggest making sales with targets close to the estimated 0.9994 level, or 323.6% Fibonacci. The likelihood of this scenario occurring is increasing daily. The upward portion of the trend may become more extended and complicated.

The wave marking of the descending trend segment becomes more intricate and lengthens at the higher wave scale. The a-b-c-d-e structure is most likely represented by the five upward waves we observed. After the construction of this section is finished, work on a downward trend section may resume.

Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2023
Euro vs US Dollar
Select timeframe
Start trade
Start trade

InstaForex analytical reviews will make you fully aware of market trends! Being an InstaForex client, you are provided with a large number of free services for efficient trading.

  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
  • Chancy Deposit
    Deposit your account with $3,000 and get $1000 more!
    In February we raffle $1000 within the Chancy Deposit campaign!
    Get a chance to win by depositing $3,000 to a trading account. Having fulfilled this condition, you become a campaign participant.
  • Trade Wise, Win Device
    Top up your account with at least $500, sign up for the contest, and get a chance to win mobile devices.
  • 100% Bonus
    Your unique opportunity to get a 100% bonus on your deposit
  • 55% Bonus
    Apply for a 55% bonus on your every deposit
  • 30% Bonus
    Receive a 30% bonus every time you top up your account

Recommended Stories

Elliott wave analysis of UNG for February 9, 2023

Short-term resistance at 8.92 must be able to cap the upside to secure the final spike lower to 7.54 to complete waves c and B and set the stage

Torben Melsted 07:44 2023-02-09 UTC+2

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD for February 9, 2023

As long as minor resistance at 1.0767 is able to cap the upside, a final spike lower to 1.0650 can't be excluded, but the odds are decreasing for this outcome

Torben Melsted 07:38 2023-02-09 UTC+2

Wave analysis of EUR/USD on February 9. Inflation accelerates again? New prospects for EUR?

Recently, the wave layout on the 4-hour chart remains virtually unchanged for EUR/USD. It's great because we are well aware of further developments. The upward section looks like a clear-cut

Chin Zhao 07:03 2023-02-09 UTC+2

EURUSD wave analysis update for February 8th, 2023.

EURUSD is trading around 1.0730. Earlier today and yesterday price bounced towards 1.0760-1.0770. Current price formation suggests that the recent bounce was a wave 4 counter trend bounce

Alexandros Yfantis 14:20 2023-02-08 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Analysis for February 8. The British pound hopes for the support of GDP.

The wave pattern for the pound/dollar pair now appears very confusing but does not call for any clarifications. The wave patterns for the euro and the pound differ somewhat

Chin Zhao 10:58 2023-02-08 UTC+2

EUR/USD wave analysis on February 8, 2023. Fed to stick to its hawkish policy

The EUR/USD wave layout on the 4-hour chart has not changed at all lately which is good for us as it gives us an understanding of how the situation

Chin Zhao 08:06 2023-02-08 UTC+2

Elliott wave analysis of UNG for February 8, 2023

UNG (United States Natural Gas Fund) has just made a new all-time low at 8.00 just below the late December 2020 low at 8.22. In the short term, we could

Torben Melsted 06:15 2023-02-08 UTC+2

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD for February 8, 2023

EUR/USD edged lower as expected and almost touched our target at 1.0650 as the low was seen at 1.0669. This is close enough to complete wave

Torben Melsted 06:06 2023-02-08 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Analysis for February 7. Neil Kashkari: The target rate is 5.4%.

The wave pattern for the pound/dollar pair now appears very confusing but does not call for any clarifications. The wave patterns for the euro and the pound differ somewhat

Chin Zhao 16:03 2023-02-07 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Analysis for February 7, 2023

The 4-hour chart for the euro/dollar pair still shows the same wave structure, which is excellent because it allows us to predict how the situation will play out. Although

Chin Zhao 15:45 2023-02-07 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.