Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting a three-week low at 101.33 on Thursday. It is undermined by the flows to haven JPY and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades as investor risk appetite fell (VIX fear gauge rose 14.98% to 15.89) on weak U.S. stocks (S&P tumbled 2.09% overnight) and disappointing trade data out of China which threw more doubt around the growth prospects of the world's second-largest economy. USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields, negative dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 79.40 versus 79.52 early Thursday) on dovish FOMC meeting minutes, reduced expectations of further easing from the Bank of Japan after its policy decision Tuesday. But dollar sentiment is soothed by the smaller-than-expected U.S. jobless claims of 300,000--a nearly seven-year low--in the week ended April 5 (versus 320,000 forecast) and higher-than-expected 0.6% on-month rise in U.S. March import price index (versus +0.2% forecast). USD/JPY losses are also tempered by the demand from Japan importers and positions adjustment before weekend.

Technical сomment:
Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, although the latter is at oversold zone, five-day moving average is below 15-day MA and is declining.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 101.20. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 100.80. The pivot point stands at 101.90. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from support level, and then it moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.15 and the second target at 102.40.

Resistance levels:
102.15
102.40
103

Support levels:
101.20
100.80
100.40