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US and Iranian representatives agreed to hold emergency technical consultations in Doha on Tuesday. According to senior sources, the parties agreed to halt mutual armed attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, which had flared up again. The day before, Tehran had publicly refused the Sunday round after Washington accused it of sabotaging the memorandum. The situation critically escalated on Sunday, when the US struck Iranian military targets in response to the interception of commercial vessels.
In retaliation, Iran immediately hit eight US military facilities in the Middle East, including closed sites in Kuwait and Bahrain. Reuters sources confirmed there were no US service?member casualties, but President Trump has already warned he is prepared to take the matter to completion by military means, and the threat level in the strait has officially been raised to "significant." Al Arabiya reports that another round of closed talks between US and Iranian technical experts and international mediators is scheduled for June 28–29. The main topic of the behind?the?scenes discussions will be agreeing on common interpretations of the previously signed peace accord.
At the same time, a new crisis is brewing on the economic track: Oman's authorities have officially notified European partners of plans to introduce mandatory transit fees for all vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, ostensibly to cover navigation services and pollution control. The White House, the European Union and the Gulf monarchies have expressed deep concern about this initiative, fearing that the sultanate, in cooperation with Tehran, could roll out a full?scale tolling system for transit of this crucial global energy artery.
Fruits of tariff madness
While key shipping routes are seeing a sharp drop in maritime freight margins, OPEC has started restoring Iraq's oil production quota. Owners of the largest oil tankers saw revenues fall by $200,000 per day after the commercial fleet resumed mass transits through the Strait of Hormuz. The charter cost of a supertanker with 2 million?barrel capacity for shipments from Saudi Arabia to China plunged from $514,000 to $287,000 per day in just a few days. This rapid freight dislocation clearly shows the world's main energy artery is gradually returning to a stable state.
Nominal income of US households in May 2026 reached $26.92 trillion on an annualized basis (+3.82%).
Disposable personal income rose 4.09% (to $23.65 trillion).
However, in real terms, household incomes are declining, while consumer spending continues to rise against the backdrop of unacceptably high inflation.
In May, the month?on?month PCE inflation rate in the US was 0.45%, after 0.41% in April and 0.67% in March. Over the last 3 months, the average monthly increase was 0.51%, over 6 months 0.43%, and over 12 months 0.33% — well above the averages of 0.23% in 2023–2025 and just 0.14% in 2017–2019. Morgan Stanley economists have revised their macro models for likely future Fed moves. In the base case, economist Michael Gapen expects policy rates to remain unchanged through the end of the year, noting that recent data largely support this view.
The bank estimates oil prices will continue to fall thanks to the US?Iran memorandum, and the inflationary impact of import tariffs is already close to its peak. Morgan Stanley forecasts headline PCE at 3.2% and core PCE at 3.0% in Q4 — notably lower than the Fed's median expectations. Summer payroll gains are expected in the range of 50–60k per month. Nevertheless, the regulator would return to a tightening cycle if US unemployment falls below 4.0%, if monthly core inflation remains stuck at 0.3% or higher, or if a new escalation breaks out in the Middle East.
AI curse?
The high?profile inclusion of IT giant Alphabet in the prestigious Dow Jones Industrial Average failed to protect the company's market capitalization from a deep slide. After reaching record highs above $400 per share in early May, the parent company's stock endured a protracted sell?off and lost about 17% of its market value. Investors ignored the symbolic status upgrade and rotated into profit?taking. Fresh macro data have effectively removed the prospect of imminent Fed easing from the agenda.
The Bank for International Settlements is sounding the alarm about a protracted crisis fueled by neural networks. The modern stock market has become critically dependent on the AI industry and semiconductors, with the semiconductor sector accounting for roughly 19% of the S&P 500's aggregate market cap. That is an all?time high — more than double the anomalous levels of 2000. The danger lies in the market's narrow growth front focused on a single theme, which multiplies the risk of a large?scale collapse. The AI cycle forces corporations into extreme capital spending: analysts estimate the largest cloud players will spend $757 billion in 2026 and increase investments to $920 billion in 2027.
Yet, the real financial payoff still looks murky. Although 54% of S&P 500 companies cite AI as an efficiency driver, only 10–11% can quantify the effect, and just 1–2% report a direct impact on corporate margins. An additional destabilizing factor is tighter U.S. controls over advanced technologies, which experts say are effectively ceding an advantage to Beijing in the cyber?technology race.
The BIS explicitly warns that these massive investments by tech giants risk turning into a prolonged investment crisis capable of damaging the global economy. According to the classic 11?stage model of a financial bubble, the current market sits at stage 7 and is rapidly moving into stage 8, evidenced by:
an IPO boom
secondary equity offerings
a wave of large M&A deals
Against this backdrop, Elon Musk's personal fortune has soared to $940 billion, effectively turning one person's wealth into the 23rd?largest economy in the world by nominal GDP. The SpaceX founder now surpasses entire countries in wealth, including Taiwan ($920 billion), Belgium ($724 billion), Argentina ($681.5 billion), Sweden ($669 billion), and Singapore ($603 billion).
Change of era: China's auto industry and Volkswagen's collapse
While marine logistics is rapidly stabilizing, China has sharply cut raw material purchases abroad. In June, seaborne deliveries to the Middle Kingdom are set to fall to a modest 6.4 million barrels per day, the lowest in nearly a decade. Since the full?scale escalation of the U.S.–Iran conflict in late February, export flows to Asia have contracted by roughly 4 million barrels per day versus normal levels — an unexpected squeeze that helped keep crude futures below the psychological $100/bbl threshold.
Despite the ceasefire between Washington and Tehran and the revival of shipping, Chinese demand remains noticeably weak. Structural reasons for the stagnation include a general slowdown in China's economy, reduced utilization at local refineries and an aggressive forced shift of the domestic auto market toward electric vehicles. The main question for traders is when Beijing will return to previous purchase volumes; analysts expect depressed demand from the world's largest Asian consumer to persist for several months.
Chinese automakers continue their aggressive expansion into the European market. In May, brands from China accounted for more than 11% of new car sales in Europe for the first time in history. The key locomotive of this growth has been conventional and plug?in hybrid models, which legally fall outside the scope of additional EU tariffs imposed on pure Chinese EVs. Local buyers are attracted by the clear advantages of Asian models in terms of:
retail price
technological equipment
powertrain performance
Brands like BYD, MG, Omoda and Jaecoo are steadily gaining market share, showing the most impressive sales dynamics in the UK, Germany, Italy and Spain. At the same time, Europe's traditional automotive leader Volkswagen is preparing for unprecedented cuts and the closure of production capacity. Media reports say the German group plans to lay off up to 100,000 employees and to close several major plants in Germany. The corporation — which also owns premium brands Porsche and Audi — currently employs about 657,000 people.
CEO Oliver Blume has already presented an internal crisis plan aimed at hard cost savings of up to €11 billion by the end of the decade. Possible closures under discussion include four major production sites, among them Audi's assembly halls in Neckarsulm and VW plants in Hanover, Zwickau and Emden. The final version of this radical restructuring plan is expected to be submitted to the supervisory board next month.
June 29
June 29, 02:50 / Japan — Retail sales, May / prev.: 1.4% / act.: 2.1% / forecast: 3.2% / USD/JPY – down Retail sales in Japan accelerated to 2.1% year?on?year in the previous period thanks to government demand?support measures. The strongest growth was seen in the auto and equipment segments, while fuel and clothing sales declined. The May report is expected to show retail sales jumping to 3.2%; confirmation would signal further pickup in consumer activity and strengthen the yen.
June 29, 08:00 / Japan — Housing starts, May / prev.: -29.3% / act.: 11.4% / forecast: 31.8% / USD/JPY – down
New housing starts in Japan moved back into positive territory in April, rising 11.4% year?on?year and ending a prolonged slump. Recovery was recorded across market segments, especially in single?family and rental housing. A projected strong increase to 31.8% in May, if confirmed, would indicate an investment boom in the sector and support the yen.
Retail turnover in Germany showed a sharp year?on?year decline of -2.7%, reflecting a pronounced cooling in consumer demand. With no consensus forecast for May on the economic calendar, the release of actual sales figures is likely to cause local volatility in the euro.
June 29, 12:00 / Eurozone — Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI), June / prev.: 93.2 pts / act.: 93.5 pts / forecast: 94.3 pts / EUR/USD – up
The Eurozone ESI in May edged up slightly to 93.5, remaining near multi?year lows due to the Middle East crisis. A modest improvement in services and consumer confidence was offset by weakness in industry and retail. A June print of 94.3, if realized, would confirm stabilization in the region's economy and strengthen the euro.
June 29, 12:00 / Eurozone — Consumer confidence, June / prev.: -20.6 pts / act.: -19.0 pts / forecast: -17.7 pts / EUR/USD – up
Preliminary estimates show Eurozone consumer confidence recovering amid some decline in global oil prices. Despite two months of improvement, the index remains below historical averages due to ongoing economic uncertainty. A June reading in line with the -17.7 forecast would confirm a gradual recovery in purchasing power and support the euro.
June 29, 12:00 / Eurozone — Consumer inflation expectations, June / prev.: 43.3 pts / act.: 48.8 pts / forecast: 40.5 pts / EUR/USD – down
Eurozone consumer inflation expectations fell sharply in May to 40.5 pts, retreating from the four?year high recorded the previous month. Although perceived price pressure has eased, the indicator remains well above long?run norms. A June print around 40.5 would signal reduced pro?inflationary risks and weigh on the euro.
June 29, 17:30 / US — Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook (Texas manufacturing activity index), June / prev.: -2.3 pts / act.: 0.4 pts / forecast: 2.0 pts / USDX (6?currency USD index) – up
The Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index for Texas moved into positive territory in May, rising to 0.4 pts. Overall business conditions and the labor market showed stability despite a modest drop in hours worked. Local firms faced a notable rise in input prices, reaching an eight?month high, while producer selling prices fell. Most companies maintain moderately positive near?term expectations. A June reading of 2.0, if confirmed, would indicate a recovery in the state's industrial sector and support the dollar.
June 30
June 30, 02:01 / UK — Shop price inflation, June / prev.: 1.0% / act.: 1.2% / forecast: 1.3% / GBP/USD – up Shop price inflation in the UK rose to 1.2% year?on?year in May, driven by higher input costs and logistical disruptions from the Middle East conflict. The strongest increase came in the non?food segment, especially furniture and cosmetics, while food price growth slowed to a yearly low due to intense supermarket competition, partially restraining overall price pressures. The June forecast of 1.3%, if confirmed, would raise pro?inflationary risks and strengthen the pound.
June 30, 02:50 / Japan — Industrial production, May / prev.: 2.4% / act.: 2.0% / forecast: 2.2% / USD/JPY – down
Japan's industrial production rose 2.0% year?on?year in April. Current industrial expansion remains subdued and well below the country's long?run averages. The May report is expected to show growth accelerating to 2.2%; confirmation would signal a recovery in manufacturing activity and support the yen.
June 30, 04:30 / China — Manufacturing PMI, June / prev.: 50.3 / act.: 50.0 / forecast: 50.1 / Brent – up, USD/CNY – down
China's official manufacturing PMI fell to the 50.0 threshold in May. Local manufacturers face considerable pressure from weak domestic demand and rising input costs amid the Middle East conflict. The slowdown to a three?month low was accompanied by declines in domestic and export orders, weaker purchasing activity and persistently soft employment. Price indices for inputs and finished goods eased slightly but remained elevated, while overall business sentiment declined modestly. The June preview expects a slight rebound to 50.1. A print in line with expectations would confirm resilience in the Chinese industry, push Brent oil prices higher and strengthen the yuan.
June 30, 04:30 / China — Non?manufacturing PMI, June / prev.: 49.4 / act.: 50.1 / forecast: 50.5 / Brent – up, USD/CNY – down
China's official non?manufacturing PMI returned to expansionary territory in May at 50.1. The improvement was driven by a pickup in services and construction activity, supported by government infrastructure projects. Domestic and external demand showed signs of stabilization, though new?orders subindices remain in contraction. Business spending rose amid accelerating cost inflation, while employment remained moderately weak. The June preview forecasts a rise to 50.5. Confirmation would indicate recovery in China's consumer and construction sectors, lift Brent prices and strengthen the yuan.
June 30, 09:00 / Germany — Retail sales, May / prev.: -0.2% / act.: -0.3% / forecast: 0% / EUR/USD – up
German retail turnover fell 0.3% year?on?year in April, reflecting a pronounced cooling in consumer demand. Current retail trends in the eurozone's largest economy remain well below long?term historical averages. The May consensus expects stabilization at 0.0%; a print in line with that would signal the end of the consumer downturn and support the euro.
June 30, 09:00 / Germany — Import prices, May / prev.: 2.3% / act.: 5.3% / forecast: 6.6% / EUR/USD – up
Germany's import price index surged to 5.3% year?on?year in April, a new high since early 2023. The sharp pro?inflation impulse was driven by soaring energy prices, crude oil and petroleum products amid the US?Iran conflict. Costs for intermediate goods and non?ferrous metals also rose significantly, while consumer and agricultural imports showed moderate declines. May's release is expected to push import prices further to 6.6%; confirmation would signal stronger external price pressures and support the euro.
June 30, 15:00 / Germany — Consumer inflation, June / prev.: 2.9% / act.: 2.6% / forecast: 2.5% / EUR/USD – down
Germany's annual consumer inflation slowed to 2.6% in May, retreating from a two?year high. The deceleration was seen in:
food,
utilities, and
hospitality
Energy costs remain high due to the US?Iran war's effects, although the rise was temporarily damped by lower fuel taxes. Overall inflation still exceeds the ECB's target. The June consensus expects a slowdown to 2.5%; confirmation would reduce the need for aggressive policy and weaken the euro.
June 30, 15:30 / Canada — GDP growth, April / prev.: 0.6% / act.: 1.0% / forecast: 0.4% / USD/CAD – down
Canada's economy contracted 0.1% in March due to weakness in manufacturing and lower oil and gas output in western provinces. Additional drag came from weaker construction and retail activity, partly offset by a strong rise in wholesale sales. April is expected to show a recovery with 0.4% month?on?month growth. A print in line with expectations would confirm the rebound and strengthen the Canadian dollar.
June 30, 16:00 / US — S&P CoreLogic Case?Shiller 20?City Home Price Index, April / prev.: 0.4% / act.: 1.0% / forecast: 0.7% / USDX (6?currency USD index) – up
The S&P Case?Shiller 20?city home price index accelerated to 1.0% month?on?month in March, well above long?run averages. This dynamic points to sustained price pressure in the housing sector. April's forecast is for a moderate slowdown to 0.7%; confirmation would indicate persistently strong demand and support the dollar.
June 30, 16:00 / US — Single?family house prices, April / prev.: 1.7% / act.: 1.7% / forecast: 2.1% / USDX – up
Annual growth in single?family house prices in March was 1.7%, unchanged from the prior month. These figures remain well below the post?pandemic housing boom peaks. The April forecast calls for acceleration to 2.1%; realization would confirm improving resilience in the housing sector and support the dollar.
June 30, 16:45 / US — Chicago business activity index, June / prev.: 49.2 / act.: 67.2 / forecast: 61.0 / USDX – down
Chicago's business activity index surged to 67.2 in May, a four?year high and a clear return to expansion. The sharp rebound reflected a recovery from the local slowdown caused by rising input costs and reduced purchasing power amid the Middle East conflict. The June consensus expects a decline to 61.0; confirmation would signal normalization after May's spike and weigh on the dollar.
June 30, 17:00 / US — Job openings, May / prev.: 6.887m / act.: 7.618m / forecast: 7.280m / USDX – down
U.S. job openings unexpectedly rose to 7.618 million in April, a multi?month high driven by strong demand in professional and business services. The financial sector saw a pullback in openings, while hiring and separations broadly balanced out amid a stable domestic backdrop. A May print of 7.280 million would indicate gradual cooling in the tight labor market and weigh on the dollar.
June 30, 17:00 / US — Quits (voluntary resignations), May / prev.: 3.160m / act.: 2.977m / forecast: 2.960m / USDX – up Voluntary quit rates fell to 2.977 million in April, lowering the quits share to a minimum of 1.9%. Notable declines in retail and logistics reflect rising caution among workers and reduced confidence in quickly finding new jobs. With no consensus forecast for May in the calendar, the release may trigger local volatility in the dollar index.
June 30, 23:30 / US — API crude oil inventories / prev.: -8.33m bbl / act.: -0.765m bbl / forecast: – / Brent – volatile API weekly data show US commercial crude inventories fell by just 765k barrels, a sharp slowdown in the pace of draws. Total stock declines over two months remain substantial, supported by large Strategic Petroleum Reserve interventions, which reached a 40?year low. With small increases in domestic production and rising gasoline and distillate stocks, the absence of an official weekly forecast will sustain volatility in Brent prices.
June 29, 14:30 / Australia — Speech by RBA Deputy Governor Christopher Kent / AUD/USD June 29, 19:30 / Eurozone — Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde / EUR/USD June 30, 04:30 / Japan — Publication of the Bank of Japan meeting minutes from June 16 / policy rate – 4.35% / USD/JPY June 30, 13:40 / UK — Speech by BoE Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden / GBP/USD June 30, 14:30 / Eurozone — Speech by Philip Lane, ECB Chief Economist / EUR/USD
Comments from senior central bankers are also expected these days. Their remarks typically trigger FX volatility because they can signal future policy intentions.
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