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30.07.2012 10:46 AM
EUR/JPY - Elliott Wave Analysis for July 30 - 2012

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EUR/JPY Weekly chart

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 EUR/JPY 4 Hourly

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

S1: 96.10                      R1: 96.65

S2: 95.71                      R2: 96.78

S3: 95.33                      R3: 96.91

 

 

Technical Overview:
In the larger picture we expect that an important long term low is in place with the test of 94.09. We are still in the very early part of what we expect to be a new major rally in wave 3. The fact that the rally from 94.09 has been in wave 5 (impulsive) adds confidence to this view. That proves that we still need some important hurdles to clear, but for now we will have to work with the smaller waves.
As it was said above, we have now seen a nice five wave rally from the important low at 94.09 to 97.32 on Friday. With a high at 97.32 we saw a nice spike into the ideal target area for green wave 5 and we should now be looking for a correction back towards the 95.33 - 95.71 area, which marks the 50 - 61.8% retracement of the rally from 94.09 to 97.32. Once this correction is done, a new impulsive rally higher towards 100.82 should be seen.

Trading Recommendation:
The take profit level at 97.30 was taken out on Friday and a nice profit of between 245 - 310 pips could be booked. If you are an aggressive trader, you should sell EUR against JPY at 96.75 with a 97.35 stop and take profit and reverse to a long EUR position at 95.85 with a 94.05 stop. The more conservative trader waits to buy EUR against JPY at 95.85 with a 94.05 stop.

Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Torben Melsted
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