Brokerage firm Bernstein has sharply raised its long-term gold price forecast. Analysts now expect the precious metal to hit $4,800 per ounce as early as 2026, climbing to $6,100 by 2030. The revised outlook is based on a new analytical model incorporating net demand from central banks, ETF inflows, and the US rate-cutting cycle.

Analyst Bob Brackett notes that institutional demand remains a fundamental market driver. Despite some slowdown in 2025, regulator purchases significantly exceed levels from three years ago. According to surveys, 95% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves over the next year, while 73% of respondents expect the dollar's share in global reserves to decline within five years. ETF demand is viewed as a pro-cyclical force capable of amplifying price rallies as capital inflows accelerate.

The macroeconomic environment also supports the bullish scenario. Markets are pricing in two to three Fed rate cuts in 2026. Historical data shows that the value of gold increases by an average of 6.53% in the year following policy easing. Thus, two potential interest rate cuts could deliver returns around 13%. Additional structural growth factors include the chronic US budget deficit and global reserve diversification.

Among key risks, Bernstein highlights the possibility of higher real rates and a sharp reduction in government sector purchases. Alongside the price forecast, the firm upgraded gold miner Newmont Goldcorp (NEM) to "Outperform" with a price target of $157. The company's EBITDA outlook was raised 26% to $21.9 billion amid expectations of a precious metal rally.