02.11.2017 02:19 PM
Global macro overview for 02/11/2017

The FOMC meeting statement did not bring any surprises. There is a similar optimism regarding economic activity in September. The hurricane-induced decline in employment is combined with an under-declining unemployment rate. At the same time, the Fed highlights the weakness of inflation, although it still assumes it is reaching the 2.0% target in the medium term. In general, the message leaves the door open to a December hike.The US Dollar is on the defensive move due to doubts about the reform of the tax system. It seemed that the specific progress in this field in the previous weeks supported the US Dollar. Now there is a typical chaos of the Trump administration, a lack of details and a collision course with some of the politicians of his own group. The market is also dominated by the belief that J. Powell will be the new Fed head (such a choice is already in prices). It is important to keep in mind that the FOMC's decision-making structure will change slightly towards "hawkish" bias if the Taylor or Warsh will join to the FOMC Board of Governors - such signals could support the US Dollar across the board.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price has bounced from the technical support at the level of 94.47 but did not rally yet towards the new high. Nevertheless, the progression of higher highs and higher lows is still continuing and as long as the golden trend line is not violated, the bias remains bullish.

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