14.12.201710:52 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading plan for 14/12/2017

Long-term review

The details of the Fed's hike were interpreted as dovish and the investors' reluctance towards the US Dollar was dragged to the Asian part of the session. AUD is rallying after another strong report from the labor market. NZD is losing. The stock market is calm with small drops. Nikkei225 lost 0.3% and Hang Seng fell 0.4%. Gold benefited from USD weakness and increased to 1257 USD and Crude oil is stable at 56.7 USD.

On Thursday 14th of December, the event calendar is very busy with important economic released. The main event of the day is ECB interest rate decision and press conference and Bank of England interest rate decision, deposit facility rate decision and press conference. Moreover, the Swiss National Bank will make interest rate decision as well. Other important data are Unemployment rate from Australia, Industrial Production from China, Consumer Price Index from France, Flash Manufacturing, Services and Composite PMI from Germany and Eurozone, Retail Sales from the UK and Retail Sales from the US.

EUR/USD analysis for 14/12/2017:

The Fed raised interest rates by 25 bps, in line with expectations. There were two votes against (Kashkari, Evans), but none of them will have the right to vote in 2018. GDP growth forecasts have been slightly increased, inflation forecasts have been unchanged, the unemployment rate forecast has been lowered; The Fed is still expecting three hikes in 2018. The dove surprise was that, despite including the impact of the tax reform in the forecasts, it does not encourage FOMC members to increase their forecasts. The market reaction to the Fed decision was to depreciate the US Dollar across the board.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market reversed from the technical support at the level of 1.1725 and broke above the technical resistance at the level of 1.1807.Currently, the nearest support is 1.1807 and the next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.1864 and then at 1.1941.

Exchange Rates 14.12.2017 analysis

Market Snapshot: DAX testing the support

The price of German DAX index is testing the support at the level of 13,085 and if this support is violated, then the Head & Shoulders pattern might fully develop. The next target is the support at the level of 12,953 and 12,809.

Exchange Rates 14.12.2017 analysis

Market Snapshot: USD/CAD ready for a breakout?

The price of USD/CAD is still trading inside of the sideways zone between the levels of 1.2618 - 1.2919. Recently, the price tested the technical support at the level of 1.2800 and now it looks like is preparing for a test and a possible breakout above the level of 1.2919. So far none of the indications confirms this scenario yet.

Exchange Rates 14.12.2017 analysis

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Sebastian Seliga,
Analytical expert
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