11.01.2018 11:53 AM
Trading plan for 11/01/2018

The US Dollar is recovering some of the losses from Wednesday under the influence of the Chinese news regarding the demand for US bonds. USD/JPY coming to test 111,85, EUR/USD reversed towards 1,1940. AUD jumped after very good retail sales data, but there is no continuation of the up move. The stock market in Asia flattered, just as Wall Street. Flat trading conditions are seen in Crude Oil as well.

On Thursday 11th of January, the event calendar is quite busy today, with news coming from the UK ( BoE Credit Conditions Survey data), Eurozone ( Industrial Production and ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts data), Canada (New Housing Price Index data) and the US ( PPI and Core PPI data).

AUD/USD analysis for 11/01/2018:

Retail Dales in Australia in November increased by a staggering 1.2% on a monthly basis, three times stronger than expected number of 0.4% and over two times more than the last figure of 0.5%. Retail Sales are a leading indicator for the economy and are a good gauge for goods sold at retail outlets in the past month/year. Rising consumer spending fuels economic growth confirms signals from consumer confidence and may spark inflationary pressures. The rise in inflationary pressures is the indicator that the Reserve bank of Australia is mostly interested in as the inflation is still below the RBA target.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. AUD unambiguously reacted to the data with a jump to 0.7886, but in the following hours, the volatility expired. The level of 0.7886 is 61% Fibo retracement of the previous swing down, so it will be acting as a resistance to the price. Moreover, there is a clear bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator, so the test of the nearest technical support at the level of 0.7806 is very possible.

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Market Snapshot: USD/CAD at the key resistance zone

The price of USD/CAD is now testing the key technical resistance zone between the levels of 1.2556 - 1.2598. There is 38% Fibo retracement at the level of 1.2577 as well, which makes this zone even stronger. The next important resistance is at the level of 1.2623, close to the 50% Fibo at the level of 1.2641.

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Market Snapshot: DXY is back to the channel zone

The price of US Dollar Index tried to test the recent lows at the level of 91.76, but the demand has pushed the price back up quickly. No new high or low was made yet, so the market stays inside of the channel. The momentum is still positive for bull, but not too strong. The market conditions are overbought. The ney level to the upside is 92.64.

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