USD/JPY

On Friday, the yen reached a support for the downward trend line on the panic in emerging markets and this morning with a price gap passed under this support and rushed to the next at 109.90. Breaking through this support will open the way to the next one, with the goal of 109.04.

We do not think that the current situation can provoke a wider crisis, especially since the events that are taking place now show a powerful speculative component. We expect the relief of fears and the transition of markets ito a calm growth of the dollar across all segments. Currently the Nikkei 225 is losing 1.85 percent, the Shanghai Composite -1,68 percent, the S&P/ASX 200 -0,51 percent. The negative scenario - the collapse of markets - is possible if, until the end of August, the US and China do not agree on easing the tariff war and the United States will not cancel the planned increase on September 6 for duties of $200 billion.